When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 4-7 and the Jacksonville Jaguars 8-3, few would have gotten excited at the prospect of their Christmas weekend matchup. Tampa Bay was “supposed” to be 4-7 and Jacksonville was “supposed” to be 8-3. Three weeks later, the Bucs are 7-7 and on the cusp of a division title whereas the Jags are 8-6 and searching for answers to alarming questions.

Wouldn’t you know it but its Tampa Bay who sits as a slight favourite as per the NFL odds at -1.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s tempting to think that Jacksonville and Tampa Bay get down to business often as state rivals. The truth is that since they’re in different conferences, they only meet on average once every four seasons. As such, there are only four matches to speak of since 2007, which was a vastly different era for the NFL. For the stats geeks out there, the clubs have shared the spoils out of those contests, with Tampa winning the most recent two.

Not only were things looking up for the Jaguars in late November when they were 8-3 in the AFC South, but the club was performing at 8-3 versus the spread too. Their three consecutive defeats have also hampered the ATS tally, which has dropped to 8-6. Jacksonville relies heavily on the passing game to march down the field (ninth in passing yards per game, 26^th in rushing), which bolds well given that the Bucs are 31^st in defence against air attacks (263.9 yards a game).

Whatever the final scores of Buccaneers games look like, the club impresses against the spread. With a 9-5 ATS record they make for a good prop. Tampa Bay has covered six of its last eight opportunities, including two in a row. They’re winning despite their flaws: 26^th in total yards conceded but 13^th in points given up per match. There’s a “bend but don’t break” defence if there ever was one.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday night was billed as a big battle as it should have been. With the Baltimore Ravens in town, it was a showdown between a club (Baltimore) making good on failed promises of years past and another (Jacksonville) whom most acknowledge as good but had faltered lately.

The result and how the game played out were heavily in the Ravens’ favour. Right from the opening drive, it was obvious that the Jags’ defence was going to have its hands full in figuring out what to do about Lamar Jackson as a running and throwing threat. But it wasn’t just their struggles against one of the game’s best quarterbacks that sunk them. If anything, Jackson was okay but unspectacular. Conversely, Jacksonville’s offence was dreadful. With 75 rushing yards, two missed field goals, two Trevor Lawrence fumbles, and a 3-for-13 night on third down, it was a terrible game. Don’t be fooled by WR Jamal Agnew’s numbers. His 70 yards had a lot to do with the team’s lone score of the game, a 65-yard bomb from Lawrence. The Jaguars were second-best in nearly every category and deservedly lost 23-7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Except for the 2021 NFC Championship game, it had been a long time since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers walked into Lambeau to play the Packers in cold weather and earned the spoils. That changed in Week 15 when the Bucs handed the Packers a 34-20 defeat, helping their playoff aspirations and putting a major dent in Green Bay’s.

This might have been Baker Mayfield’s finest hour in the Tampa Bay Bucs jersey. He went 22-for-28, 381 yards, and four touchdowns. Mayfield obliterated the Packers’ secondary. Despite not scoring, Chris Goodwin was his favourite target (10 catches for 155 yards). Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Ko Kieft, and David Moore all caught TD passes. If the Week 16 version of the Buccaneers is the one making the playoff push then it seems obvious they are the AFC South team to beat.

Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Buccaneers?

JAGUARS

Away

20

BUCCANEERS

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