-
Edgar Chaput
MLB Power Rankings, World Series Odds: The Immovable Baltimore Orioles
Time is of the essence. Blue Jays fans, Mariners fans, Giants fans, Marlins fans, all these camps and others have their eyes glued to the games as these clubs fight for their playoff lives. With only weeks left in the regular season, any defeat can prove fatal for postseason aspirations.
To that point, this is the first edition of the MLB Power Rankings that involves officially eliminated teams, but don’t let that make you think they all automatically rank at the bottom!
Check out our World Series odds below.
Check out our American League, National League, Interleague odds, and MLB Props for all your baseball action.
All data was collected as of Tuesday, September 12 prior to game time.
MLB Power Rankings
1. Baltimore Orioles (91-52, spread: 89-54)
There aren’t many editions of the MLB Power rankings left, and still the Baltimore Orioles stand tallest. They have the second-best record in the majors, the second-best record against the runline, and are on the cusp of securing not only a division crown but home-field advantage in the American league. The Orioles have surpassed everyone’s expectations. In a testament to how everything has gone right, starting pitcher Kyle Gibson has a poor 5.12 ERA yet he’s won the most games in the rotation at 14!
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (87-56, spread: 81-62)
It was extremely tempting to put the Atlanta Braves second. L.A. got hammered by Atlanta at home a little over a week ago, but because we have to keep the runline in mind, a case can be made that the Dodgers are the better team, at least in that respect. No one will catch them in the NL West and there’s always a chance when you have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
3. Cincinnati Reds (74-71, spread: 90-55)
The Cincinnati Reds earn all our plaudits. Within the context of a power rankings exercise for a sportsbook, the Reds are the team to pick, even if they end up missing the playoffs. With a 90-55 tally against the spread at the time of writing, a better can’t go wrong. A playoff berth would be the icing on the cake. Alexis Diaz is a closeout monster with 35 saves to his name.
4. Atlanta Braves (93-50, spread: 75-68)
There will be no more placing the Atlanta Braves outside the top five. Their performances against the spread are not the best – still honourable – but most agree that they are, on paper, the most dangerous team in MLB. Furthermore, at the time of writing, they are the first to clinch a playoff spot. Good pitching? They have it with Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and company. Good hitting? They have it with Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and company.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (89-56, spread: 77-68)
By process of elimination, we arrive at the Tampa Bay Rays to round out the top five. A short while ago it looked as if they might be losing their way, but they’ve handled the Red Sox and Mariners in rapid succession since then. Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz keep slugging away, keeping this team very dangerous.
6. Houston Astros (82-63, spread: 74-71)
It was tempting to put the Rangers here because of a slightly superior record against the runline but the Houston Astros absolutely obliterated them at home three times last week. We have to give respect to whom respect is due. For the longest time, it was fair to question how good the 2023 Astros were, but not anymore. They seem to have reverted back to their usual standards, which are very high, to say the least.
7. Texas Rangers (79-64, spread: 75-68)
This seems fitting, if only just. We mentioned how poorly the Rangers held their own against a very important rival last week, but have played better since then. This included announcing their intentions on Monday night in Toronto against the Blue Jays, with whom they fight for a Wild Card spot. Adolis Garcia is on a 10-day IL and they could use him. He’s already at 100 RBIs this season.
8. Chicago Cubs (78-67, spread: 75-70)
The Cubs defied the odds this year. They’re a much better ball club than what most pundits said they’d be and currently hold a Wild Card spot. Fully deserved, for that matter. They pounded the Giants into submission last week, another club vying for a postseason berth. Justin Steele is having a fantastic season with a minuscule 2.49 ERA and 20 quality starts as of September 12.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-69, spread: 77-68)
It’s interesting to compare outright win-loss records with performances against the runline this late in the season. You end up with a club like the Diamondbacks who sneak into the top 10 despite not having “wow!” records in either category. Because they’re respectable in both, here they are at the nine position. Fun fact: Arizona is ranked third in stolen bases, helped by Corbin Caroll’s 47.
10. Washington Nationals (65-79, spread: 79-65)
We did it all season long, so why change our tune suddenly? It is what it is, as tired as that expression is. This is not a very good baseball team, but they’ve covered the fourth-most runlines! There are only a few weeks left in the regular season. Frankly, if you haven’t caught on yet, we can’t help you anymore.
11. Milwaukee Brewers (80-63, spread: 69-74)
The Brewers have kept their pace atop the NL Central, emphasizing how solid they are this year. If those performances against the spread were a bit better, we’d be happy to slot them inside the top 10. The club will go as far as starters Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta can take them. Those two and the bullpen have helped Milwaukee rank fourth in MLB for ERA.
12. Seattle Mariners (79-65, spread: 71-73)
Did Seattle peak too early? They’ve lost their last three series (Mets, Reds, and Rays) and suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in, albeit not by much. Julio Rodriguez has turned into the club’s offensive leader, hitting .287 with 97 RBIs and 30 home runs. Even Teoscar Hernandez has improved his efficiency at the plate.
13. Minnesota Twins (75-69, spread: 70-74)
This might be the highest-ranking the Twins have had all season. That isn’t saying much, but at least there has been modest improvement. For one, it looks as though they’ll finish at least a few games over 500. Don’t look now, but Minnesota is suddenly fifth in MLB for HRs. Three players have smashed at least 20: Max Kepler (22), Michael A. Taylor (20), and Joey Gallo (21).
14. Boston Red Sox (73-70, spread: 71-72)
We enter the “iffy” zone, a place where most of the teams are either good at one thing but not the other or are overall very average. Such is the case with the Boston Red Sox. Their role in the AL Wild Card conversation has diminished considerably in the last month. However their season ends, no one can doubt the quality of their hitting, as the Red Sox are third in MLB in batting average (.264)
15. Toronto Blue Jays (80-64, spread: 67-77)
Putting an 80-win team lower than the midway point would be preposterous. By the same token, the Blue Jays cannot be trusted against the runline. 67-77 simply isn’t a good record. For all the worry about Toronto’s bats down the stretch, the truth is they rank fourth in MLB in batting average. The problem is they leave runners on base, as they’re only 17th in RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads in that department with 84.
16. Cleveland Guardians (68-77, spread: 73-72)
Cleveland had its chances to take over the NL Central. The Twins hung all around almost all season, practically begging the Guardians to punch up, but it never happened. Now the team is 2-7 in their last nine and pretty much all hope of getting into the playoffs is lost. Jose Ramirez has been able to muster a nice campaign, hitting .275 with 73 RBIs and 22 HRs.
17. Detroit Tigers (66-77, spread: 73-69)
Ah, the good old AL Central floodgates. We’ll miss you come October. To think that the Tigers are four games above .500 ATS yet aren’t catching the faintest whiff of playoff potential. They aren’t the leaders, or close to being the leaders, in any major statistical category. The saving grace is pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez with his 11-7 record and sparkling 3.18 ERA.
18. San Francisco Giants (74-70, spread: 68-75)
How will San Francisco’s season end? They’ve been on a roller coaster all year, winning several games in a row, only to follow up with multiple defeats which put them back to hovering around .500. And yet, the Giants are one and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. They could pull this off, however uninspiring a playoff team they’d be.
19. Philadelphia Phillies (79-65, spread: 63-81)
This looks ridiculous, having the Phillies so low. In a lot of ways, it is. Then again, they have one of the worst records in baseball against the spread. In fact, as of September 12, it’s the third worst! To be fair, everything else is working well for them. They hold the top NL Wild Card spot and surely no other league rival wants to head to Philly in October. Even Trea Turner has come back from the dead to make something his first year with the Phillies.
20. Miami Marlins (74-70, spread: 66-78)
The last team with a winning record in the standings…but a rather poor one ATS. Miami is like San Francisco. They’re difficult to gauge, except that it’s tricky to know when they’ll win or lose! On a positive note, the Marlins have sprung into fourth in MLB for strikeouts. Starter Jesus Luzardo has sent batters back to the dugout 186 times already.
21. New York Yankees (71-72, spread: 68-75)
It’s true. The 2023 season has been a disaster. Some clubs would love to hover around .500 in September. The Yankees are not such an organization. How cutthroat Yankees brass intends to be this offseason, time will tell. Even nice storylines, like Jasson Dominguez (youngest Yankee to homer in their first visit to the plate), have ended in misery (torn ulnar collateral ligament).
22. San Diego Padres (68-77, spread: 71-74)
At this stage in the rankings, everything gets a little muddled. The Padres have done a tiny bit better against the spread recently, hence their climb by a few spots. For all their failures, they not only rank in the MLB top five for ERA but also quality starts. We’ve mentioned Blake Snell a number of times this season, but Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo have also put up strong numbers.
23. Los Angeles Angels (68-77, spread: 67-78)
In our continuing quest to balance the mediocre teams with somewhat similar outright win-loss and spread win-loss tallies, we arrive at the Los Angeles Angels. So now Mike Trout might get traded? That’s potentially interesting news. He’s very, very expensive and has not played as many games as L.A. would have liked the past two seasons. In fact, we can go back to 2019 as the first year he missed a decent number of games (28).
24. Pittsburgh Pirates (66-78, spread: 72-72)
Another forgotten season in Pittsburgh. It’s looking a bit rough in this town. The Penguins aren’t what they used to be, nor are the Steelers. One would have thought it was an opening for the Pirates to be the “team of the town” in 2023 but that never materialized. As is so often the case with clubs ranked this low, not much stands out. Their best hitter this year has been Bryan Reynolds with a .270 average and 71 RBIs.
25. Chicago White Sox (55-88, spread: 71-72) eliminated from playoffs
Oh, there are a couple of clubs that we could technically rank higher than the poor White Sox, but we’ll show some love to a team that at least takes care of the sort of business we as a sportsbook are interested in. Frankly, for all the misery in Chicago this season (we won’t get into the tragic events from a few weeks ago), they’re 71-72 ATS. Not bad at all. Betters, you still have a few weeks to cash in.
26. Oakland Athletics (45-99, spread: 72-72) eliminated from playoffs
We’re absolutely going to do this. The A’s have managed to play .500 baseball against the runline. That’s remarkable given how awful they’ve been at times this season. Their best hitter is Esteury Ruiz and he’s hitting .249! That said, kudos for being competitive enough to be a secretly good side to bet on.
27. St. Louis Cardinals (63-81, spread: 67-77)
It’s crazy to think that four clubs that were playoff participants in 2022 are in the bottom 10 of the Power Rankings this late in 2023 (Padres, Yankees, Mets, Cardinals). Such is the nature of MLB, where the winds can change quickly and without mercy. Impressively, they have three hitters who have brought in at least 70 runs: Nolan Arenado (89), Paul Goldschmidt (73), and Nolan Gorman (76).
28. New York Mets (65-78, spread: 61-82)
Another playoff team from 2022 that’s in the bottom 10. We understand that the Yankees are the New York club that will get all the headlines for their disappointing season – it has been disappointing and they’re the Yankees. But what in the world was this?!? Pete Alonso has been a good cleanup hitter at least. His average is far from stellar (.224) but he’s brought in over 100 runs at the time of writing.
29. Colorado Rockies (51-92, spread: 68-75) eliminated from playoffs
One of only four major league clubs to not attain at least 60 victories so far, at least two others above them had the decency to take care of business (a bit) against the runline. Colorado hasn’t been very successful in that regard. Of their four starting pitchers who feature prominently in the rotation, Kyle Freeland has the best ERA…at 5.07.
30. Kansas City Royals (44-100, spread: 57-87) eliminated from playoffs
Unless something special happens in the three remaining weeks of the campaign, it looks as though the Kansas City Royals are the worst team in baseball, at least for this exercise. They’ve been 30th for several editions in a row. At the time of writing, are the first team to suffer 100 defeats this season and are the only club to have not covered 60 spreads. There is nothing regal about this team.
