Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Preview and Prediction
The Phoenix Mercury, looking for the fourth WNBA title in franchise history, and first since 2014, take on the Las Vegas Aces, in search of their third league crown in four years, in the 2025 WNBA Finals.
For the first time, the Finals will be played as a best-of-seven series. Game 1 takes place Friday night in Las Vegas at 8 p.m. ET. Phoenix knocked off the defending champion New York Liberty in the first round before eliminating the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in four games in the semifinals.
The Aces dispatched the Seattle Storm in the first round before defeating the Indiana Fever in a thrilling five-game semifinal series.
Las Vegas is a 2.5-point favourite to win Game 1 on the WNBA odds, with the total pegged at 160.5.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces WNBA Odds and Betting Trends
Las Vegas went 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the season series with the Mercury. The Aces are 21-3 straight up and 16-8 ATS in their last 24 games since the start of a 16-game winning streak to close the regular season. They have won four of four at home in the playoffs.
The Aces have won 15 of their last 17 games against Phoenix, but are just 1-4 against the spread at home in their previous five matchups with the Mercury. Phoenix is 2-1 on the road in the playoffs and 12-13 against the spread away from home this year. They are 5-1 straight up and ATS in their last six games overall. The teams played to the Under three times in four meetings this season.
Alyssa Thomas is a great bet at -105 to score more than 16.5 points for the sixth straight time this postseason.
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury are healthy and ready to go in their first WNBA Finals appearance since 2021.
Thomas has led a massive turnaround for the franchise, which posted its first winning season in four years and its most wins (27) in the regular season since the 2014 title squad went 29-5. After 11 seasons with the Connecticut Sun, Thomas came to the desert and proceeded to finish in the top-5 in MVP voting for the fourth consecutive season.
The six-time All-Star leads the Mercury in the postseason with 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, 8.4 rebounds, and two steals a game. DeWanna Bonner, the veteran who won two titles with the Mercury, returned to her former team in midseason and has provided a major boost off the bench.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces are also healthy and have been virtually unstoppable the past two months. The team stood at 14-14 in early August, facing the prospect of being a lower seed or missing the playoffs altogether, before rolling off 16 consecutive wins.
A’ja Wilson has again led the way, winning the WNBA MVP award for the second straight season and a league-record fourth time overall. She and Jackie Young are providing a powerful 1-2 punch this postseason. The two are averaging a combined 47.5 points and 13.9 rebounds.
Wilson had 35 points and eight rebounds in the Game 5 clincher against the Indiana Fever, while Young contributed 35 points and 10 assists.
WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction: Who Will Win Mercury or Aces?
As impressive as Phoenix has been this postseason, they’ve still dropped both series openers, only scoring 69 points in each loss.
The Aces, meanwhile, have won 14 of 15 games at home since embarking on their prolonged winning streak. They split there with Phoenix in the regular season, but look for Wilson, Young, and company to fire the opening salvo and take Game 1 tomorrow night, 84-79.
