Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces WNBA Preview and Prediction

Phoenix has won two straight and five of seven to improve to 21-13, good for fourth place in the WNBA, and just a half game behind second place. The Mercury have won three consecutive road games during this recent stretch and are 10-7 away from home this season.

The Aces are the hottest team in the league, winning eight straight to improve to 22-14. Six of those eight wins have come at home, where Las Vegas is 13-5 on the year.

Las Vegas is a 1.5-point favourite to win on the WNBA odds, with the total set at 167.5.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

The Aces have dominated this series, winning 14 of the past 16 games against Phoenix, including two of three this season. However, Las Vegas is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five home contests versus the Mercury. 

Phoenix is 5-2 straight up and against the spread, while Las Vegas has gone 6-2 ATS during its eight-game win streak. The teams have played to the Over in four of their last six meetings. 

Phoenix Mercury

Satou Sabally (17.1 PPG and 6.6 REB) leads the team in scoring. Alyssa Thomas, a six-time WNBA All-Defence selection, is averaging 16.1 points and 8.6 rebounds while leading the league with 9.0 assists per game. 

DeWanna Bonner rejoined her former club after a midseason release from the Indiana Fever. She is providing a spark off the bench through 15 games with 11.8 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, while Kahleah Copper is going for 16.0 points per contest.

On Tuesday night, Copper led all scorers with 25 points, followed by Sabally with 17 points and six assists, Thomas with 13 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists, and Bonner with 12 points as the Mercury defeated the Golden State Valkyries, 98-91.   

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson, the three-time and reigning WNBA Player of the Year, has been unstoppable lately. She leads the team and is second in the league with 22.9 points and 10.0 rebounds a game. During this eight-game win streak, she has bumped those averages to 26.9 points and 13.1 rebounds. She has gone for more than 30 points in three straight and four of five.

That includes a 32-point, 12-rebound performance against the Atlanta Dream in a 74-72 Las Vegas victory on Tuesday. Jackie Young (16.7 PPG) added 16 points and seven rebounds in the triumph.

WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Mercury vs. Aces?

With just three weeks left in the WNBA’s regular season, the Aces are peaking at the right time. After starting 14-14, Las Vegas is finally showing the form that won them back-to-back titles in 2022/23.

Wilson is the difference here. She did not play in the Aces’ 76-70 loss to Phoenix at home in mid-June, but averaged 28 points and 12 rebounds in two tight wins over the Mercury since then, including 30 points and 16 rebounds in an 86-83 victory in Phoenix last week.

This will be a great matchup. Young is going for 15.8 points against Phoenix this season, while Sabally (19.3 PPG) and Thomas (15 PPG, 10 AST, and 6.3 REB) have each put forth three straight standout performances against the Aces.

Look for Las Vegas to win another tight one in this series and cover the 1.5-point spread as favourites at home, 85-82