New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Odds: WNBA Preview and Prediction
New York is fifth in the league at 24-15, a half-game behind Phoenix, which is 24-14.
The Mercury defeated New York in the teams’ first two meetings, with the Liberty taking an 89-76 decision at home last month. In the latest matchup, Sabrina Ionescu had 29 points and eight assists to pace four Liberty players in double figures, followed by Jonquel Jones with 20 points and 11 rebounds.
Liberty vs. Mercury WNBA Odds and Betting Trends
On the WNBA odds board, Phoenix is the 1.5-point favourite in this one, and the total is set at 164. The Liberty are just 13-22-2 against the spread this season, including a 3-14-1 mark on the road and 3-12-1 in its last 16 games. New York is 1-2 against the spread versus the Mercury this year, and 2-4 ATS in their previous six games against Phoenix.
Meanwhile, the Mercury are 20-17 against the spread this season, including 10-8 ATS at home. Phoenix is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS in its last five games.
New York has played to the Under in 10 of 13 contests, while Phoenix has played to the Under in nine of 12 overall and five of six at home. These teams have played to the Over in two of their three meetings, but last month’s game in New York went Under.
New York Liberty
The Liberty were dominant to start the season, going 9-0, but the team has played .500 ball (15-15) since. It didn’t help that two-time MVP and seven-time All-Star Breanna Stewart missed 14 games with a bone bruise in her right knee. The Liberty, who have lost nine of 15, went 5-9 in her absence.
Stewart returned Monday with a team-high 19 points in the Liberty’s 81-79 victory over the Connecticut Sun and had 12 points and nine rebounds in Thursday night’s 89-63 victory over the Washington Mystics. It’s safe to say that she’s been welcomed back with open arms.
Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas, a six-time WNBA All-Defence selection, is averaging 15.9 points, nine rebounds, and a league-leading 9.3 assists per game in her first season with Phoenix.
Thomas has torn up the Liberty this season, averaging 18.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10 assists in three meetings. The veteran forward has finished in the WNBA’s top-5 in MVP voting in each of the past three years and is a strong possibility to do so again in 2025. Expect her to make a big difference against New York.
WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Liberty vs. Mercury?
This is a huge contest for both teams with playoff seeding on the line. A Mercury win gives them the season series and the advantage in playoff seeding if tiebreakers come into play.
Phoenix was especially surgical the last time the teams met in the desert in a 106-91 triumph. Thomas went for 17 points, 15 assists, and nine rebounds, and Satou Sabally had 25 points, while the Mercury held Stewart and Ionescu to 26 points combined.
The Mercury have won 16 of their past 25 meetings with New York; they simply have their number. Look for that to continue on Saturday, with the hosts securing an 85-77 victory.
