Wings vs. Mercury WNBA Betting Odds, Picks: Dallas aiming for season series sweep
The Dallas Wings close out a home-and-home set with the Phoenix Mercury on Monday night, travelling to Arizona on the second leg of a back-to-back after edging Phoenix 87-82 in Arlington on Saturday.
Paige Bueckers poured in 26 points as the Wings claimed their sixth straight victory, a run that has carried Jose Fernandez’s club to a franchise-record 26-16 mark and sixth place in the overall WNBA standings.
Phoenix, meanwhile, owns the league’s second-worst record at 15-27 and has been eliminated from playoff contention since August 22.
Dallas has already swept the first two meetings this season, an 85-70 win in Arlington on June 11 and Saturday’s five-point victory, and can complete the season sweep on Monday.
Tip-off at the Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET, so let’s dive into my Wings vs. Mercury preview.
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury WNBA Odds and Betting Trends
Dallas opens as a 5.5-point road favourite on the WNBA odds, priced at -220 on the moneyline with Phoenix at +180. The total sits at 172.5, with both sides carrying standard -110 juice.
The first two meetings this season went well under that number: a 155-point combined game in June and a 169-point combined game on Saturday, for an average of 162 points per game between the two clubs. On the moneyline, Dallas has been close to automatic as a favourite, going 20-5 when favoured outright.
Dallas Wings
Bueckers has been the story of Dallas’s second-half surge, averaging 20.6 points, 5.8 assists and 4.1 rebounds since returning from Team USA’s FIBA World Cup gold-medal run in Germany, and she torched this same Mercury defence for 26 points in Saturday’s meeting. Arike Ogunbowale remains the Wings’ most reliable closer, and forward Jessica Shepard has quietly turned in a breakout season, posting her fifth triple-double of the year in a September 17 win over the Los Angeles Sparks.
The Wings will need all of that firepower because their backcourt depth has been gutted. Alanna Smith remains out with the lower-leg injury she suffered playing for Australia at the FIBA World Cup, Azzi Fudd is done for the season after knee surgery, and Sug Sutton was waived following a season-ending hand injury. Odyssey Sims is questionable after tweaking her knee in Thursday’s win over the Sparks, which would leave Dallas leaning even more heavily on Bueckers to initiate offence against a Phoenix defence that, for all its issues, still boasts one of the league’s better rebounders and passers in Alyssa Thomas.
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury’s season effectively ended on August 22, when Nate Tibbetts acknowledged after a loss to Atlanta that his team was “playing for pride” following a disappointing follow-up to their 2025 Finals run.
Thomas has continued to perform at an All-Star level regardless, averaging 14.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and a league-leading 8.4 assists. Kahleah Copper, who is averaging 21.3 points for the season and scored 38 and 35 points in late-August outings, is battling a groin injury that has put her availability for a third straight game in doubt.
With Copper compromised, Phoenix have been forced to lean on reserves such as Shay Ciezki, who scored 22 points off the bench in Thursday’s win over Portland. They have also given extended runs to rookies and recent signings to try to establish a “standard”, in Thomas’s words, that has slipped to 12th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating.
WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury?
Best Bet: Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points (-110)
Bueckers has scored 19 or more points in each of Dallas’s last two games and dropped 26 on this very Mercury defence on Saturday, a matchup that hasn’t changed with Copper again banged up and Phoenix ranked among the league’s worst defensive units. With the Wings’ backcourt stretched thin behind her, Bueckers will see heavy usage and a green light to hunt her own shot in the desert.
Final Score Prediction: Wings 89 | Mercury 82