UFC 258 Odds: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch Prediction

Saturday’s UFC 258 main card will see what should be a competitive middleweight bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Ian Heinisch.

Gastelum is a –235 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Heinisch comes in at +170.

Kelvin Gastelum UFC 258 Odds

Kelvin Gastelum (15-6 MMA record) is better than his recent record shows.  He has lost four of his last six fights, including three straight, but the fact he is still the No. 9 middleweight contender hints at his bad luck in recent bouts.  Gastelum’s losing streak started with a unanimous loss to current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 236 in April 2019.  It was an incredibly entertaining back-and-forth fight that was considered the fight of the year by multiple media outlets.  Gastelum then dropped a split decision loss to Darren Till at UFC 244, which could have gone either way.  In his last fight, Gastelum was caught off guard with a heel hook submission loss to Jack Hermansson, last July.

Gastelum is a natural striker who moves well without sacrificing power.  He slightly edges out his opponent in significant strikes landed per minute (Gastelum lands 3.86, Heinisch lands 3.67) and has a much better takedown accuracy (Gastelum is 50 per cent, Heinisch is 19 per cent).  Gastelum likes to bounce in and out of range while mixing in a variety of different strikes.  He can get opponents with both body and head kicks, but his hands are his best weapon.  Powerful combinations are always a threat to opponents when Gastelum is fighting.

Ian Heinisch UFC 258 Odds

Ian Heinisch (14-3 MMA record) has been had an up-and-down record since his UFC debut in 2018.  He started his UFC career with unanimous decision wins over Cezar Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Junior, but then hit a snag.  Heinisch ended 2019 with unanimous decision losses to Derek Brunson at UFC 241 and Omari Akhmedov at UFC 245.  Although Heinisch only fought once in 2020, it was a statement win.  Heinisch took down veteran Gerald Meerschaert with a crushing first round KO shot at UFC 250 in June.  Back in the win column, Heinisch is looking to string together multiple wins and prove he can be a middleweight contender.

“The Hurricane” is a durable fighter who grinds out fights.  He uses a hulking frame to twist and jerk around opponents and can beat you standing up or on the ground.  Heinisch is more accurate with his significant strikes (Heinisch 51 per cent, Gastelum 41 per cent) and averages 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 0.82 for Gastelum.  Throwing off his opponents timing with his jerky movement is key to Heinisch’s style.  He is a pressure fighter who possesses KO power and has become a much better grappler. Heinisch is a dangerous fighter who can turn a fight in his favour in an instant.

Gastelum vs. Heinisch UFC 258 Prediction

Both fighters are capable on the ground, but they’d each rather stand up and trade shots.  Heinisch will likely pressure Gastelum early and try to land a quick KO.  Gastelum is a more patient and technical fighter who will wait for his opportunities.  Look for Gastelum to win by unanimous decision.