NFL
Payton Matthews
January 29, 2025

Super Bowl 59 Total Prediction: Betting the Over/Under for Chiefs vs. Eagles

There are no weather concerns for Super Bowl 59 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Feb. 9 as the game is played inside the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. What’s the smart over/under play on the total of 49.5?

Overs With Slight SB Lead

The last unbeaten team in the NFL regular season hasn’t won the Super Bowl since 2006, when the Indianapolis Colts were the last team without a loss at 9-0 and went on to beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI in Miami. Kansas City was the league’s last unbeaten this season before losing Week 11 in Buffalo. The Chiefs of course are trying for the first Super Bowl threepeat in NFL history. They could tie the NFL record for total wins in a season with 18, also set by the 1984 San Francisco 49ers, 1985 Chicago Bears and 2007 New England Patriots.

We will have our ATS pick closer to the game, but what of the total of 49.5 points? Before about 1990, a total that size would have been unthinkable because the NFL back then was a run-dominant league, but now it’s incredibly pass-happy because most league rules benefit quarterbacks and receivers.

Thus, the total of 49.5 isn’t that unusual these days and is actually the second-lowest in the big game this decade. The over/under is 29-28 in Super Bowl history – there was no total on the first Super Bowl but it definitely would have gone over with Green Bay beating Kansas City 35-10.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl 59 Game Preview

Top-10 Scoring Defences

All sportsbooks can have slightly different numbers, but the highest total ever in a Super Bowl was 57.5 for New England-Atlanta in Houston following the 2017 season. That went Over only because the game went to overtime with the Patriots rallying from a 28-3 late third-quarter hole to win 34-28.

The highest-scoring Super Bowl was XXIX when the San Francisco 49ers beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26. That total was set at 53.5. The lowest-scoring Super Bowl was LIII following the 2019 season in Atlanta and the Patriots beat the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 where the total was 56 and the over hit by early fourth quarter. When these clubs met in the Super Bowl two years ago in Arizona, the total was 51.5 and Kansas City won 38-35.

It’s the fifth Super Bowl for the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era. The under hit it in the first two when both were played outdoors in Florida, while the Over has hit in the past when they were played indoors like this one. It’s the third Super Bowl in New Orleans this century in New Orleans and the over-under is 1-1 in those.

Both clubs are known for their offensive stars – Mahomes and Travis Kelce to name two on the Chiefs and Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to name two on the Eagles – but both were terrific defensively during the regular season. Philadelphia was first in total defence (278.4 YPG), pass defence (174.2 YPG) and scoring defence (17.8 PPG). It is the first team since the 2014 Seattle Seahawks to enter the Super Bowl leading the league in scoring and total defence. That Seattle team beat Denver 43-8 in SB XLVIII. Kansas City was 10^th in total defence (320.6 YPG), eighth in rush defence (101.8 YPG) and fourth in scoring defence (19.2 PPG).

That the Chiefs were much better against the run than the pass actually should bode well for them because Philadelphia has become very run-heavy (No. 2 rush offence this season) with Barkley, who could set the NFL all-time single-season rushing yardage total in the SB with only 30.

Kansas City has gone 18 straight playoff games without allowing individual 100-yard rusher and 18 straight games overall this season (Ravens QB Lamar Jackson got to 100 in Week 1). The more a team runs the ball, the more the clock runs and the game shortens.

Printable Super Bowl 59 Party Prop Bets