Canadian Election Odds Update: Liberal Majority Favoured, PC Closing Gap

While the Liberal Party remains the favourite to win the most seats and form government, recent odds suggest this race is tightening, particularly as Conservatives make gains in key regions and the popular vote gap narrows.

Mark Carney’s Liberals are still in the driver’s seat. But a strengthening Conservative campaign, uncertainty in Quebec, and Donald Trump’s re-election in the U.S. have injected new volatility into the race.

Election Betting Market Moves

Here’s how the election betting lines have changed at Sports Interaction since last week:

Next Government

• Liberal Majority: -150 (was -175)
• Conservative Majority: +450 (was +400)
• Conservative Minority: +500 (was +550)
• Liberal Minority: +450 (was +650)

To Win Most Seats

• Liberal Party: -300 (was -275)
• Conservatives: +225 (was +200)

Popular Vote Winner

• Liberal Party: -135 (was -225)
• Conservatives: +110 (was +175)

To Win 2nd Most Seats

• Conservatives: -300
• Liberal Party: +225

The market still leans toward a Liberal majority, but with tighter pricing and rising Conservative odds, there’s more uncertainty than last week, especially in the “Popular Vote Winner” category, where the odds have swung sharply.

What’s Driving the Odds Shift?

Quebec Is In Play

According to CTV, roughly 20 Quebec ridings are true toss-ups. If the Bloc slips and Conservatives gain even modest ground, it could dramatically shift seat math in a tight election.

Trump’s Return Complicates the Narrative

Most reports show that Trump’s re-election has become a core issue in Canada’s race. Carney’s international profile plays well with centrists, but the CPC is successfully pushing a sovereignty and affordability-focused counter-narrative, particularly in the West.

Polls Tighten Nationally

NDTV’s recent roundup shows the Liberal lead shrinking to just 3–4 points nationally. Carney remains a net-positive for the Liberals, but the Conservatives are tightening their messaging and gaining ground in critical regions.

Liberals Still Lead, But Vulnerabilities Are Emerging

If you’re betting this election, here’s what stands out:

• The Liberals are still in control, but the value is disappearing.
• Conservative momentum is real, especially in popular vote markets and Quebec projections.
• A Liberal minority at +450 or Conservative majority at +450 may offer the best value as we head into the final stretch.

Watch for another move if the next round of polling shows further CPC gains or a Bloc collapse.

Want to bet smarter this election?

Check out our full Canadian Election Betting Guide for market breakdowns, strategy tips, and everything you need to know before placing a bet on the Canadian election.