Sports Interaction Staff
April 27, 2025

Canadian Election Odds: Liberals Surge, Conservatives Slide Ahead of Vote

After weeks of tightening polls and shifting lines, the final weekend before the 2025 Canadian federal election has delivered a clear message from oddsmakers: the Liberals are back in control.

Mark Carney’s surge has solidified the Liberals as the heavy favourites heading into Monday’s vote. Meanwhile, Conservative momentum has cooled — at least according to the latest odds and polling.

With the most up-to-date betting lines now locked in, let’s break down where things stand, how much the markets have moved, and what it all means for bettors looking to get one last wager in before ballots are cast.

Bet on the Canadian Election

Latest Election Betting Odds (April 27)

Next Government

Liberal Majority: -165 (was -150)
Liberal Minority: +400 (was +450)
Conservative Minority: +500 (was +500)
Conservative Majority: +600 (was +450)

Popular Vote Winner

Liberal Party: -250 (was -135)
Conservative Party: +175 (was +110)

Leader Seat Props

Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat: Yes +700, No -1600
Jagmeet Singh to lose his seat: Yes -1000, No +525
Yves-François Blanchet to lose his seat: Yes +550, No -80o

What’s Changed Since Our Last Update?

The big story is the widening gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Just a week ago, the Liberals were modest favourites at -150 to win a majority. Now they’re up to -165, and even more telling, their odds to win the popular vote have shifted dramatically from -135 to -250. That’s a major move — suggesting confidence that Carney’s momentum will translate not just to seats, but to an outright national win.

Meanwhile, Conservative odds have softened. A Conservative majority, which was priced at +450 just a few days ago, is now up to +600, indicating a slightly lower chance of the Tories pulling off an upset.

The leader seat props also paint a picture of relative stability. Poilievre (-1600 to hold his seat) and Singh (-1000 to hold) are both expected to survive locally, despite broader party struggles.

Canadian Election Odds: Why the Shift?

1. Polling Shows a Late Liberal Surge

According to the final YouGov poll reported by the Economic Times, the Liberals have opened up a five-point lead nationally, positioning them firmly for a majority. Support for the Bloc Québécois has softened in Quebec, and the Conservatives have failed to make enough inroads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to close the gap.

2. Carney’s Favorability Factor

Mark Carney’s campaign has leaned heavily into leadership credibility, economic stewardship, and foreign policy stability — a message that’s resonated down the stretch, especially with centrist and soft Liberal voters nervous about Trump’s return to the White House.

3. Conservative Stumbles

As outlined by Covers, the Conservatives’ momentum has slowed after a series of flat performances in key debates and a late shift in focus to wedge issues. It hasn’t been enough to eat into the Liberal base where it matters most.

Liberals in Control, But Watch the Margins

As we head into election day, the Liberals are firmly positioned as favourites to win both the popular vote and form government — and a majority is increasingly the expected outcome.

That said, the race for second — and the margin of victory — could still offer intrigue. Regional surprises in Quebec, B.C., or suburban Ontario could tip the seat count closer than expected, even if the overall winner looks locked in.

If you’re betting last-minute:

Liberal Majority at -165 now looks like the chalk play.
Liberal Minority at +400 remains an interesting value for those expecting tight races and regional volatility.
Conservative Majority at +600 is now a true longshot — but it’s election day. Anything can happen.