World Cup Odds Preview – Quarter-Finals!

The World Cup is down to the last eight – Ricky Rothstein previews the quarter-finals!

France v Germany
Rio de Janeiro, 12:00 EST
This is a game that would grace the Final itself. Two giants of the European game, one of which has to go home sooner than it deserves. Germany is the favorite, but France has had a better tournament so far.

Germany came to the tournament as one of the favorites to win it all – as it goes to all tournaments of course – but the defense looks like it can be turned and rumors are sweeping Brazil of a ‘flu outbreak in the German camp. France fell over the qualifying line and lost one of its best players, Franck Ribery, just before the tournament, but has hammered its opponents in Brazil, led by Réal Madrid striker Kerim Benzama.

This game will be decided in midfield, where the Germans will tackle the French harder than they’ve been used to so far – how will the French react? Will their early form prove true, or will they crumble under the German onslaught?

Pick: What happens between evenly matched teams? They draw, of course. Draw at 2/1 is the pick.

Brazil v Colombia
Fortaleza, 16:00 EST

Colombia’s historic record against Brazil is wretched, but neither of today’s teams resemble their predecessors. This is the deepest Colombia has ever gone in a World Cup tournament, and it’s done it without Falcao, supposedly its best player. By contrast Brazil, the national team famous for its free-flowing samba football, looks a shadow of itself and is more and more reliant on the talent of Neymar up front to drag the team along with him.

As well as that, there is the crushing weight of expectation on Brazil as the home team, a weight that gets heavier and heavier with each game. Colombia, by contrast, are an ideally-mixed team – the defensive solidity delivered by veterans and the exuberance of youth, as personified by one of the breakout stars of this World Cup, James Rodríguez.

Pick: Brazil will get call going, but it still won’t be enough to save them. Colombia at 3/1 is the pick.

Argentina v Belgium
Brasilia, 12:00 EST

What a game this is going to be. They said Messi couldn’t do it on the greatest stage of all, the World Cup tournament. They can’t say that any more. They said the World Cup had come too soon for the young Belgians – Belgium’s grew from boys to men over the course of those extraordinary two hours of glory against the United States.

In a tournament not noted for defensive play, Belgium have been resolute in front of goals, led by their magnificent captain, Vincent Kompany. And the Belgian attack looked much more dangerous when Lukaku came off the bench against the USA – expect him to start on Saturday.

Argentina is Messi, of course, but as the tournament has progressed he’s been getting more help from his team-mates than, say, Neymar has got from the other Brazilians. Belgium has the pound-for-pound advantage, but empiricism means nothing in the face of genius.

Pick: Messi. Genius is difficult to deny. Argentina at 2.02 is the pick.

Netherlands v Costa Rica
Salvador, 16:00

There’s a scene in The Shawshank Redemption where the Morgan Freeman voiceover says that he’d like to tell us that Andy Dufresne fought the good fight and the bad guys left him alone, “but this ain’t that kind of story.” Neither is the World Cup. Romance only goes so far – eventually, the real world comes to collect.

Costa Rica can’t live with the Netherlands. Costa Rica will be game and competitive and proud, but the Dutch are too good, too steeped in the game, too aware of how close they are to winning the World Cup after losing three finals in their history. They will find a way to win. Costa Rica just hasn’t got the artillery to stop them.

Pick: Netherlands 1.46