After defying expectations to reach the semi's of the last European Championship, Wales is hoping another deep run is in the cards, but they'll need to go through a tough Denmark squad in the Round of 16.
The group stage for Euro 2020 is over and the Round of 16 kicks off with Wales taking on Denmark in Amsterdam on Saturday. With a win, loss and draw in the group stage, Wales reached the knockout round by finishing second in Group A behind Italy. Denmark was a surprise qualifier and finished second to Belgium in Group B, despite losing their first two matches of the tournament.
Denmark is a -125 favourite to win on the soccer odds, with Wales at +333. A draw is +237.
Wales vs. Denmark Betting Odds
Both teams barely had a positive goal-differential in the group stage, finishing at plus-1 each, so it makes sense the Under 2.5 goals is a -193 favourite in this game, while the Over is +143. Denmark is -345 on ‘draw no bets’ and Wales is +223. The Danes’ Jonas Older Wind is favoured at +600 to be the match’s first goalscorer. Wind is also a +200 favoured anytime scorer. The favoured exact result in the match is a 1-0 Denmark win.
Sitting at -278 to be eliminated in the Round of 16, this is as far as oddsmakers predict Wales will get. There’s a little more faith in Denmark, who are +178 to bow out in the quarterfinals. The Welsh are +8550 to become unlikely Euro champions, while Denmarks is +1809 to take the ultimate prize.
After defying expectations to reach the semi’s of the last European Championship, Wales is hoping another deep run is in the cards. The only loss they suffered in the tournament was a 1-0 defeat against an Italian team that swept Group A. It was a result that manager Rob Page was likely fine with, as the Welsh still managed to qualify despite being down to 10 men for the final 35 minutes against Italy because of an Ethan Ampadu red card. Page rotated the lineup against Italy to provide the starters some rest when it became clear the team would qualify. It was just Wales’ second loss in their last 16 competitive matches. They haven’t lost back-to-back competitive matches since June 2019.
There’s no known injuries on the Welsh side, although they will be without the suspended Ampadu. Kieffer Moore was the key piece of Wales’ 4-5-1 lineup for the first two matches of the tournament. After mixing things up against Italy, Page is expected to go back to the earlier rotation against Denmark. Look for Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey to deliver the offence. Bale and Ramsey have combined for 49 of 97 Welsh shots over Euro 2016 and Euro 2020.
The Dragons have an extra day’s rest coming into this contest and that could be a major factor. They also have more experience in the knockout stages of major tournaments. Don’t expect Wales to light up the scoreboard, but if it goes to penalties, we see Wales coming out on top.
Denmark will get a nice morale boost in this game as COVID travel restrictions will keep Welsh fans out of Amsterdam, while the Danish supporters are expected to show up in full force. It’s a nice bonus for this squad after they were forced to build a human privacy wall while Christian Eriksen was being resuscitated on the field because of a cardiac event in their first match (Eriksen has been released from the hospital and is expected to make a full recovery, though his playing future is unclear). Denmark is actually the first team in European Championship history to make it through to the knockout round after losing their first two matches. With wins in their last three competitive matches against Wales, the Danes should be confident heading into this one.
Eriksen will be the only Danish player missing for this game. With a 4-1 win against Russia in their last group stage match, look for Denmark to roll the same lineup against Wales. Daniel Wass, Joakim Maehle and Martin Braithwaite have led this team from the back-end, particularly playing well with Yussuf Poulsen up top. The offence should run through Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg. The Tottenham midfielder set up two goals against Russia and his three assists in the tournament ties him for the most assists by any Danish player in a major tournament.
Denmark is ranked seven places higher than Wales in the FIFA rankings and they came out on top the last two times these teams faced off, in the 2018 UEFA Nations League. With Danish supporters allowed to travel, this is essentially a home game for Denmark. Don’t underestimate the value of fan support and a desire to win for Eriksen.
Wales vs. Denmark Score Prediction
Wales 1, Denmark 1 (Wales wins on penalties)