Juventus vs. Monaco: Champions League Semifinals Odds and Prediction

The first-leg matches of the 2017 Champions League semifinals conclude Wednesday when French side Monaco hosts Italian Serie A team Juventus, with the eventual aggregate winner taking on either Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid in the championship game early next month. The second leg of this tie is next Tuesday.

Juventus vs. Monaco, First Leg

Moneylines: Juventus +136, Monaco +195, draw +236
Total: 2.5
Date: Wednesday, May 3, 2:45 p.m. ET
Location: Stade Louis II, Monaco

UEFA Champions League Odds: Juventus vs. Monaco

Juventus, which is going to win the championship in Italy’s Serie A this season for a sixth straight year, is one of the best defensive clubs in Europe. That was on display in the quarterfinal round when Juventus upset pre-tournament Sports Interaction betting favourite and star-studded Barcelona 3-0 on aggregate. You simply don’t go to Barcelona and put up a clean sheet but that’s what Juventus did after taking the first leg 3-0. Barca had just seven shots on target in the second leg, its fewest in a home Champions League game in the past seven years. Juventus hasn’t allowed a goal in the past 531 minutes of Champions League play, with the last coming Nov. 22 in the group stage against Sevilla.

Paulo Dybala leads Juventus with four Champions League goals and Gonzalo Higuaín has three. In all competitions, Higuaín has 26 goals and Dybala 14. Higuaín is Juve’s +357 favourite to be the first goalscorer of the match. Juventus will be without defender Daniele Rugani due to a knee injury and midfielder Sami Khedira, who is serving a one-game suspension. Juventus has reached the final eight times, winning it all in 1985 & ’96. It lost in the 2015 final 3-1 to Barcelona.

Monaco, which leads France’s Ligue 1 and looking for its first title there since 2000, has one of Europe’s best attacking forces led by Kylian Mbappe, who is just 18, and Radamel Falcao. Monaco advanced with a 6-3 aggregate win over German power Borussia Dortmund, taking the second leg 3-1 at home. Mbappe scored in the third minute, his fifth goal in the knockout stage of the competition, tying Real Madrid’s Cristiano Ronaldo this term. It also made Mbappe the first in Champions League history to score in each of his first four knockout games.

That was Monaco’s 30th multi-goal game in league and European competition, second to only Real Madrid in Europe. Monaco has since added two more multi-goal games in Ligue 1 play. Monaco has scored exactly three goals in each of its four Champions League knockout games this season. It is first team in the competition’s history to score at least three times in four consecutive knockout games. Falcao and Mbappe each lead Monaco with five Champions League goals. In all competitions, Falcao has 25 goals and Mbappe 22. Falcao is the +429 favourite to be the match’s first goalscorer with Mbappe at +518.

Monaco is in the Champions League semifinals for the fourth time, the most of any French side. It last reached in 2004 when Monaco lost 3-0 to Porto in its only finals appearance. Midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko is in doubt for Monaco due to a broken nose suffered in training.

Juventus vs. Monaco Predictions

It’s the fifth all-time meeting between the sides. Juve leads 2-1-1 and won in the 15 Champions League quarterfinals 1-0 on aggregate. It should be a fabulous battle of contrasting styles. Juve is/was one of the most experienced clubs in the tournament while Monaco is/was one of the youngest with an average age of 24. The French side has scored a whopping 146 goals in all competitions this season, with 95 in Ligue 1.

The winner of this tie will be the home club on June 3 at the National Stadium of Wales in Cardiff against the winner of the Madrid derby. I like a draw in this match – bet -147 that both teams will score — with Juventus then prevailing 2-1 at home in next Tuesday’s second leg to advance and face Real Madrid.