Italy vs. Spain Prediction: Euro 2020 Semifinals Betting Odds

Jordan Ramsay
July 4, 2021

Either Italy or Spain will be the first team to book their ticket to the 2020 European Championship Final as they meet at Wembley Stadium in London on Tuesday for the first tournament semifinal. The Italians made their way here after downing Belgium 2-1 in the quarters. The Spanish, on the other hand, needed penalties to move past Switzerland after a 1-1 regulation time draw.

Italy is a +116 favourite to win on the soccer odds, with Spain at +215. A regulation draw is +232.

Italy vs. Spain Betting Odds

Down to the final four teams, Italy sits as a +199 favourite to win the tournament. That’s not surprising, considering their 15-match winning streak at the Euro’s (qualification included) is a tournament record. In 2016 Italy won 2-0 in the Round of 16, the last time these teams faced each other in the European Championship. They’re a -116 favourite to score the first goal on Tuesday.

At +246, Spain trails Italy and England in the tournament odds. With a tournament-leading 12 goals (Italy and Denmark each have 11, England has 8), Spain is a -149 favourite to score the most tournament goals. Spain won the last time these teams met, a 3-0 victory in 2018 World Cup qualifying.

Italy

No one has had an answer for the Azzurri long before Euro 2020 as Italy is unbeaten in their last 32 matches and haven’t lost since September 2018. Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne’s first half goals against Belgium were enough to get Italy into the semi’s. They’re now the first team ever to win 15 straight European competition matches. Manager Roberto Mancini has groomed this squad into a smooth and dangerous offensive threat. Juventus veterans Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini meanwhile, have locked things down defensively and quashed opponents’ attacks all tournament. The Italians are extremely difficult to score against and before Austria’s extra-time strike they had gone over 1000 minutes without allowing a goal.

Italy was dealt a devastating blow against Belgium when Roma’s Leonardo Spinazzola tore his achilles and was forced to withdraw from the tournament. Spinazzola had been a key piece of Mancini’s game plan and he’ll be a big loss. Emerson Palmieri, who has only made two appearances in the tournament, will replace Spinazzola in the lineup. Alessandro Florenzi has reportedly recovered from a calf injury and could also draw into the lineup on Tuesday.

Italy has tallied 11 goals at Euro 2020, their most in any tournament since scoring 12 on their way to winning the 2006 World Cup. That offence, combined with their suffocating defence, has the Azzurri in great position to win the European Championship for the first time since they did it on home soil in 1968.

Spain

The Spanish are two wins away from their fourth European Championship, which would be the most all-time. It hasn’t been smooth sailing up to this point, however. Spain only won one group stage match (albeit a 5-0 blowout against Slovakia) and they needed extra-time against Croatia (Round of 16) and penalties against Switzerland (quarters) to make it to this point. This has been an inconsistent team. It’s worth noting, however, their 12 tournament goals equals their highest total ever at the Euro’s. The last two times they scored 12 goals, 2008 and 2012, they went on to win the tournament. Spain is unbeaten in their last 13 matches, but seven of those were draws, which highlights their lack of finishing ability.

Spain is expected to be without Pablo Sarabia, who suffered a muscular strain against the Swiss. Sarabia contributed big goals against Slovakia and Croatia and should be replaced in the starting XI by Dani Olmo. Aymeric Laporte has been training separately from the team because of fatigue, but he is expected to play on Tuesday. Laporte is the only Spanish player to play every minute in the tournament, which is more impressive when you consider two matches went to extra-time.

This should be an extremely close match and although Spain is technically the underdog, there’s a real possibility their superior rhythm and movement could help them win. Spain was dominant in the 2000’s, capping off the decade by winning the 2010 World Cup, but they haven’t been to a major tournament semifinal since 2012. With 90 minutes separating them from the Final, expect the best version possible of this Spanish team on Tuesday.