France vs. Morocco Prediction: 2022 World Cup Quarterfinal Odds

Daniel Coyle
December 12, 2022

Morocco became the first African side to earn a berth in the World Cup semi-final with a stunning 1-0 upset win over Portugal in the semi-finals, and have yet to allow an opposing player to score so far at Qatar 2022. France booked a return trip back to the semis after outlasting England in a hard fought 2-1 quarter-final win.

France have emerged as massive -415 favourites to advance to the final, and are a -196 bet to earn the victory in 90 minutes. Morocco lag as +266 longshots to claim a spot in this year’s final, and a distant +560 wager to dethrone the champions in 90 minutes. The odds of Wednesday’s contest ending in a draw after 90 minutes are pegged at +266, while lofty -161 odds favour the total going UNDER 2.5.

France vs. Morocco Semifinal Betting

France -172
Draw +270
Morocco +500

Wednesday afternoon’s matchup at Al Bayt Stadium marks the first ever World Cup meeting between these two nations, and the first clash across all competition since 2007. Overall, France holds a narrow edge in four previous friendlies with the Atlas Lions, going 2-1-1, capped by a 2-2 draw when these sides met in Paris 15 years ago. However, the French have effectively outgunned Morocco by a wide 8-3 margin in their past three tilts. While this marks the deepest run ever by an African squad at the World Cup, and Morocco’s best performance since getting bounced in the round of 16 in 1986, France enjoys plenty of experience in knockout stage action. This marks Les Bleus’ fifth trip to the semis since 1982, with the team advancing to the final in each of their past three appearances.

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France

France faced their stiffest test of the tournament in Sunday’s clash with England. Les Bleus seized an early lead, but were quickly put back on their heels by Harry Kane’s match-tying goal from the spot in the 54^th minute. And while they subsequently reclaimed the advantage, they were lucky to escape with a win after Kane missed the net on his second penalty attempt in the dying minutes.

While Kylian Mbappe emerged as the hero of this squad early in the tourney, veterans Oliver Giroud and Antoine Griezmann have made their presence felt in the past two matches. Giroud sealed the win over the Three Lions with his second-half marker, which marks his second goal in as many outings, while Griezmann now leads the team with three assists after setting up both French goals on Sunday. Overall, France has now outscored opponents by an 11-5 margin while going 4-0-1 in Qatar, and have averaged 2.44 goals per game over their past nine World Cup contests.

Morocco

The Atlas Lions continued their sensational run at Qatar 2022 with yet another epic defensive performance in Sunday’s victory over Portugal. Despite maintaining just 26.7% possession, Morocco seized opportunities when presented, racking up nine shots on goal, including Youssef En-Nesyri’s match-winning goal in the 42^nd minute. With their 1-0 win, Morocco have now kept clean sheets in eight of their past nine outings across all competitions. And the lone marker they have allowed over that stretch came off the foot of Morocco defender Youssef En-Nesyri, who tallied an own goal in the team’s 2-1 victory over Canada in group stage action.

An enormous amount of credit for this team’s success must go to Yassine Bounou. The Montreal-born goalkeeper has been simply unbeatable at this year’s tournament, extending a steady nine-match run with the Atlas Lions, allowing just two total goals while guiding the team to a 7-2-0 record over that stretch. Maintaining such dominant defence against the highly skilled world champions will prove to be a huge challenge, however. As will generating offence.

The Atlas Lions have scored just five total goals at this year’s tournament, and will be hard pressed to seize opportunities against a battle-hardened French squad that expects to return to the final. But if this team can frustrate France through the first 45 like they did against Belgium, Spain, and Portugal, they remain worthy of a value to accomplish a feat that would have been considered unthinkable just three weeks ago.