England vs. Slovenia Prediction: Euro 2024 Betting Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Jun 21, 2024

harry kane england world cup

Group C action from Euro 2024 in Germany concludes on Tuesday afternoon with group-leading England facing Slovenia at 3pm ET.

The English are priced as -250 favourites, the Slovenians +725 and a draw at +360.

England vs. Slovenia Odds

England is atop Group C with four points through two matches, and Slovenia is tied for second with Denmark at two points. Serbia is at the bottom of the group with one point. Denmark and Serbia play their final group stage match from Munich at the same time as this game Tuesday.

The English will advance to the Round of 16 as long as they don’t lose against Slovenia OR Denmark does not beat Serbia. England wins Group C if it beat Slovenia or draws and Denmark does not win. If England draws and Denmark wins, it would go to tiebreakers atop the group with the English currently at plus-1 and the Danes at even. To win the group, England is -700 and to advance -20000. England finishing first and Denmark second is the overall favoured order at -140. 

Slovenia will be through to the knockout round with a win and would take the group if it wins and Denmark does not. If Slovenia and Denmark both win, they will go down to tiebreakers for the group. Slovenia is +1400 to win it and +150 to advance. Remember that the top four third-place finishers across the groups also move on. 

England has not lost to Slovenia in six overall matches with one draw. The haven’t played World Cup qualifying in October 2017 with the English prevailing 1-0.

England

The English, ranked fifth in the world, were the favourites to win Euro 2024 briefly but haven’t looked especially good yet with a 1-0 win over Serbia in their opener and then a 1-1 draw with Denmark on Thursday. Now the Three Lions are +450 to win Euro 2024, behind France (+350) and Germany (+400). Jude Bellingham had the lone goal vs. Serbia and fellow superstar Harry Kane had the lone one vs. Denmark – Kane was among the pre-tournament favourites for most overall goals. Kane, England’s all-time top scorer with 64, was subbed out for Ollie Watkins in the 69th minute vs. the Danes in part because Kane is still battling through a back injury. He is the -115 favourite for an anytime goal Tuesday with Watkins next at +105.

Manager Gareth Southgate has admitted his club is struggling under the weight of big expectations, but 12 of his 26 players on the roster had never been to a senior tournament before. “We know the level has to be higher; we know the level can be higher,” Southgate said after the Denmark draw. “Maybe the biggest thing is we have to accept the environment that we’re in and the expectations that are around us. We are going to have to walk towards that challenge.”  England is unbeaten in its past 13 Euro group stage matches (eight wins, five draws) since a 2-1 defeat against France in its opening match at Euro 2004.

Slovenia

Slovenia is one of the lowest-ranked teams in the world at Euro 2024 at No. 57 and still looking for its first-ever win in this event as it’s just the second time in it (2000). It has been consistent in this tournament, drawing 1-1 with Denmark in the opener and then by the same score Thursday against Serbia (Slovenia’s final warm-up match was also a 1-1 tie vs. Bulgaria). The Slovenians should have beaten the Serbs but allowed the tying goal to substitute Luka Jovic near the end of second-half stoppage time (95th minute). Zan Karnicnik had the Slovenia goal in the 69th minute but is a +1850 longshot for an anytime goal Tuesday.

Slovenia’s only loss in its past 14 overall matches (eight wins, five draws) was to 2-1 to Denmark in Euro 2024 qualifying in November. Slovenia has failed to score in just one of its past 22 international matches. That it fails to score Tuesday is a -135 favourite with one goal at +165. 

England vs. Slovenia Prediction

England 1, Slovenia 1

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