Tottenham vs. Aston Villa EPL Betting Odds, Picks: Two struggling attacks meet in north London
Matchweek 5 brings a genuine relegation six-pointer to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday, and it’s a fixture neither side wanted to see this early in the season. Roberto De Zerbi’s Spurs sit 17th with just two points from four matches and join Coventry City as the only two clubs in the Premier League yet to score a league goal this season, while Unai Emery’s Aston Villa haven’t fared much better, taking just a single point from their opening four fixtures and already shipping seven goals.
Both managers will point to underlying process over results, but at some stage the numbers have to start showing up on the scoreboard, and that’s exactly why this preview digs into where the goals, or lack of them, are actually likely to come from.
Tottenham vs. Aston Villa Premier League Odds and Betting Trends
The market has this one close to a coin flip. Tottenham are priced around +100 on the three-way moneyline, with the draw out at +275 and Aston Villa +265 underdogs. The total sits at 2.5 goals on the EPL odds, and it’s the Under that carries the shorter price at roughly +115, with the Over closer to -140.
Given that these two sides have combined for a total of one league goal between them across their last four matches apiece, a market that’s skeptical of goals arriving in bunches makes plenty of sense.
Tottenham
Tottenham’s problem isn’t the process; it’s the finish. Last weekend’s 0-0 draw at home to Everton summed up the season so far: 63 per cent possession, an expected goals tally of 1.44, and just two shots on target to show for it. De Zerbi’s side did at least show defensive improvement in that game, and it’s part of a broader trend. Since Matchday 2, Tottenham have conceded only two goals against a cumulative expected-goals-against figure of 2.8, evidence that a reshuffled back line built around Micky van de Ven is starting to hold up its end even while the attack stays stuck.
That defensive spine matters against a Villa side that’s already conceded seven times in four games. Pedro Porro continues to push forward from right-back looking for the service that’s been missing further up the pitch, and with Villa’s back line still finding its shape after a busy summer overhaul, this is arguably the most inviting matchup Spurs have had all season to finally get off the mark in front of their own fans.
Aston Villa
Villa’s issues mirror Tottenham’s in almost every way. A single point from four matches, seven goals conceded, and a finishing problem of their own have Emery’s side well below expectations after reaching the Champions League last season. The alarm bells rang loudest in a recent loss to Nottingham Forest, where Tyrone Mings struggled badly against the physicality of Liam Delap, prompting Pau Torres to be recalled into the centre of defence for this trip to north London.
Nicolas Jackson leads the line and offers some encouragement, having scored in a recent Champions League win over Club Brugge, but translating that form into the Premier League has proven difficult so far. History also leans against Villa doing much damage here going forward: despite winning four of the last five meetings between these two clubs, including a 2-1 win at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in their encounter back in January, Villa’s attack simply hasn’t been the version of itself that produced those results, and a leaky defence on the road against a Spurs side finding its footing defensively is a tough combination to overcome.
Premier League Prediction: Who Will Win Tottenham vs. Aston Villa?
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (+115)
Two attacks that have combined for one Premier League goal all season don’t turn into a shootout overnight, and Tottenham’s defensive numbers since Matchday 2 back up the shorter price on the under. I’ll side with the market here and expect a tight, low-event contest between two sides still searching for answers.
Final score prediction: Tottenham 1 | Aston Villa 1