FIFA World Cup: Who will Canada play in the Round of 32?
Sitting atop Group B with one match left in the group stage, Canada has a projected chance of more than 99 per cent to reach the Round of 32.
Heading into the group stage finale for Group B on Wednesday, Canada is level with Switzerland at four points each, but the Canadians hold first place because of goal differential.
That means Canada has a great shot at winning Group B and they are nearly guaranteed to qualify for the knockout round for the first time ever.
So, with knockout round seeding still very open, what does Canada’s path to the Round of 32 look like? Let’s get into it.
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Matchday 3
Matchday 3 will determine Canada’s Round of 32 opponent, date and location.
Canada will take Group B if they win or draw against Switzerland. A loss likely means Canada finishes second unless Bosnia and Herzegovina routs Qatar by a large enough score to erase Canada’s goal differential lead. Canada leads the group at plus-six, while Switzerland is plus-3, Bosnnia and Herzegovina is minus-3 and Qatar is minus-six.
Winning the group could be huge for Canada as it provides an extra four days of rest compared to the Group B runner-up. The added rest would be particularly beneficial for captain Alphonso Davies, who has missed the first two games of the World Cup as he recovers from a hamstring injury.
Round of 32
The winner of Group B will have just over a week off before playing July 2 in Vancouver. That would be especially appealing for Canada and Switzerland as they would get to stay in Vancouver after the group stage finale.
Tournament seeding is pretty up in the air at the moment. The Group B winner plays the third-place finisher in either Group E, F, G, I, or J. Based on the standings entering Monday, the Group B winner, currently Canada, would face Belgium, who are currently third in Group G.
Group G uncertainty
Group G is arguably the most wide-open group of the tournament entering Matchday 3. Belgium, ranked 10th in the world, have shocking been held to draws against Egypt and Iran while only scoring one total goal in those two games.
Egypt currently leads the group with four points and a plus-two goal differential. However, Iran and Belgium are each close behind with two points and an even goal-differential and it’s still possible the third-place team from Group G doesn’t qualify for the knockout round.
Canada’s likeliest opponent
A breakdown in The Athletic has Canada’s likeliest opponent as either Iran or Egypt from Group G, or Algeria, who are currently last in Group J. Keep in mind, that’s based on Canada securing any points against Switzerland to win Group B.
Finishing runner-up in Group B puts Canada on a very different path. In this scenario, Canada would play on the first day of the knockout schedule, set for Sunday, June 28 at 3 p.m. ET in Los Angeles against the runner-up from Group A.
Mexico has already clinched first in Group A. South Korea will secure second-place with a draw or win against South Africa on Wednesday as they hold the tiebreaker over Czechia.
When does Canada find out their path?
Canada may or may not know their Round of 32 schedule by the end of Wednesday. A loss against Switzerland will lock in the Les Rouges’ schedule and opponent by the end of the night. A win or draw for Canada means they will need to wait until the rest of the tournament finishes group stage play on Saturday to find out their next opponent.
As appealing as it is to look ahead to the Round of 32, Canada’s focus is now firmly on Wednesday’s group stage finale against Switzerland.
The Canadians are razor-thin +200 underdogs, while the Swiss are +145 favourites. A draw is listed at +210.