2026 FIFA World Cup Group F preview, betting odds, prediction

Group F gets going on June 14, and while it may not have the star power of some of the other groups in this tournament, do not let that fool you into looking away. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the biggest in history, 48 teams spread across Canada, Mexico, and the United States, and Group F might quietly be the most competitive draw of the whole lot.

The Netherlands arrive as the headliners, a squad built around Virgil van Dijk and capable of beating anyone on their day. But Japan is no pushover; they beat both Germany and Spain in the group stage at Qatar 2022, and they are absolutely capable of doing it again. Sweden, under Graham Potter, is organized, physical, and awkward to break down. Then there is Tunisia, which went through qualifying with a 9-1-0 record without conceding a single goal. 

This group could come down to the final matchday, and the odds reflect exactly that. Here is my 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F prediction.

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of World Cup game odds and World Cup futures.

2026 FIFA World Cup Group F odds

Here are the latest odds for each team to win the group:

• Netherlands (-130)
• Japan (+260)
• Sweden (+450)
• Tunisia (+1100)

Additionally, you can bet on which teams will qualify based on the odds below:

• Netherlands (-1400)
• Japan (-400)
• Sweden (-230)
• Tunisia (+140)

The top two teams will earn automatic qualification, with eight third-place finishers also advancing under the expanded format. The Netherlands are the favourites, and at -1400 odds to qualify, they already have one foot in the knockout stage. Japan (+180) and Sweden (+250) are barely separated for the runner-up spot, making the second qualifying spot wide open. Tunisia at +140 to advance is not a number to completely ignore, given their defensive solidity coming out of qualifying.

Netherlands preview and analysis

The Netherlands enters this World Cup with major expectations after reaching the semifinals of Euro 2024 and consistently remaining one of Europe’s most talented squads. Ronald Koeman’s side is loaded with experience and quality at every level of the pitch, and they should view anything less than a quarterfinal appearance as a disappointment. Virgil van Dijk still anchors the back line, while Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo provide creativity and finishing ability in attack.

The Dutch are not always the most consistent team in major tournaments, but their ceiling is extremely high. They have far more attacking talent than anyone else in this group, and they should control possession in nearly every match they play. If the Netherlands start quickly, they could wrap up qualification before the final matchday.

Japan preview and analysis

Japan continues to establish itself as one of the most dangerous non-European and non-South American teams in international football. After stunning both Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup, this group will not intimidate them whatsoever. Japan cruised through Asian qualifying once again, and their technical quality and pace in transition make them extremely dangerous against possession-heavy teams.

Kaoru Mitoma is their most explosive attacking player, but he will not be in the squad due to injury. Additionally, Takumi Minamino also missed out due to injury, while Wataru Endo, Ko Itakura, and Takehiro Tomiyasu were included in the squad but are still returning from injury. If healthy, Japan could give the Netherlands serious problems in the opening match, but their squad just isn’t there.

Sweden preview and analysis

Sweden is back at the World Cup after missing out in 2022, and Graham Potter has quickly made this team difficult to play against. After losing to Switzerland 4-1 in his opening match in charge, he rallied this squad to a draw against Slovenia and back-to-back wins against Ukraine and Poland. 

Even though he had an injury-riddled season, Alexander Isak is the clear star of this squad, while Dejan Kulusevski adds creativity and pace going forward. Sweden will likely target Tunisia as a must-win game before trying to frustrate Japan and the Netherlands physically. I do not think they have enough quality to win the group, but they are more than capable of sneaking into the knockout stage.

Tunisia preview and analysis

Tunisia quietly put together one of the strongest qualifying campaigns of any African nation, finishing 9-1-0 without conceding a goal. That defensive structure is the main reason why they could surprise people in this group. 

Elias Saadi provides attacking quality in the final third, while their midfield will look to slow games down and frustrate opponents. Tunisia’s biggest issue is scoring consistently against stronger competition, which could become a major problem against teams like the Netherlands and Japan. Still, if matches stay low-scoring, Tunisia absolutely can steal points and shake up this group.

2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Prediction: Netherlands (-130)

The Netherlands deserves to be the favourites, and they should roll through this group. While I do think Japan could’ve caused issues if they were healthy, they (and the other teams in this group) lack the star power to take out this Dutch squad.

Best Bet: Netherlands to win Group F (-130)

Group Winner: Netherlands (-130)