Canada vs. USA Prediction: Women’s Worlds Gold Medal Odds

The two powerhouses will clash once again on Sunday in the final of the 2025 IIHF Women’s World Championship — marking the 24th time in 25 tournaments that they’ll play for the top prize.

Puck drops at 12:00 p.m. ET in front of a sold-out Budvar Arena in Czechia, capping off a record-setting tournament that’s featured packed crowds and elite-level drama. Canada enters as the defending champion. The Americans come in hungry for revenge after last year’s overtime loss in the final.

We’ve got the latest Women’s Worlds odds, team breakdowns, and a final prediction ahead of what should be another instant classic between the sport’s two titans.

Betting Odds: Canada Slight Favourites

According to Sports Interaction, this one is a true coin flip.

• Moneyline: Canada -115 | USA -115
• Spread: Canada -1 (+185) | USA +1 (-250)
• Total: Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-115)

Oddsmakers aren’t picking sides. The moneyline is a dead heat, and even the total is evenly juiced. Canada is listed as the favourite on the puck line, but you’ll get a generous +185 if they cover the -1. The USA +1 at -250 implies another tight one; no surprise given recent history.

The two teams met earlier in the tournament, with the U.S. edging Canada 2-1 in the group stage. But that’s not always predictive: the last three times the U.S. won the round-robin game, they lost the final.

Bet on Canada vs. USA

Team Canada

Team Canada steamrolled Finland 8-1 in Saturday’s semifinal, flexing some real offensive depth and defensive control. Marie-Philip Poulin, now the all-time leading scorer at women’s worlds with 87 points, scored in that win and continues to lead the tournament with 11 points. Ann-Renée Desbiens made 19 saves to break the all-time wins record at the tournament with 22.

Canada has scored 34 goals in six games, the most of any team, and boasts the highest shooting percentage in the tournament at 14.59%. Daryl Watts added two goals in the semifinal but was ejected late for a headshot; her status for the final remains unclear and could impact Canada’s second-line scoring.

Desbiens has been excellent again, allowing just six goals in five games and giving Canada the type of steady goaltending that wins championships. Behind a structured defense, and with a well-rested top six, Canada looks confident and complete.

Head coach Troy Ryan was able to limit star minutes in the semifinal — Poulin played just 13:36 — while getting meaningful contributions from depth players like Serdachny and Nurse. That might matter against a U.S. team coming off its most taxing game of the tournament.

Team USA

If Canada cruised, the U.S. crawled. Their 2-1 semifinal win over Czechia was a grind. They trailed 1-0 until late in the second, got an equalizer from Laila Edwards, and a go-ahead tally from Kelly Pannek, who now leads the team with four goals.

But there are real concerns here. Despite putting up 45 shots, the U.S. only managed two goals — continuing a trend that’s haunted them all tournament. Their scoring efficiency ranks just fourth (9.24%), and Alex Carpenter — who led the team in goals last year — has only two in six games.

Coach John Wroblewski designed this roster for size and physicality, hoping to neutralize Canada’s speed and structure. But in doing so, they left off or scratched some of their more skilled players, including Kirsten Simms and Hannah Bilka. That’s contributed to a stagnant power play and a top six that hasn’t consistently driven play.

The good news? Aerin Frankel has been rock solid in net, with a tournament-best 0.75 goals against average. If the Americans are going to win, it’s likely going to be on her back and possibly by the same 2-1 grind-it-out script we saw on Saturday.

Prediction: Canada 3, USA 2 (OT)

As usual, this one could go either way. But Canada’s offensive firepower, clean defensive play, and Desbiens’ consistency give them the edge heading in. The U.S. simply hasn’t shown the scoring punch needed to pull away, and they’ve only beaten Canada once in their last five major finals.

If the Americans can get early momentum and test Canada’s defense physically, they’ve got a shot, especially with Frankel in top form. But the most balanced, battle-ready team is wearing red and white. And they’ve got the game’s most clutch player in Poulin.

Give us Canada in overtime. Because of course.