2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: First round series picks, predictions and odds
It’s the best time of the year as NHL teams gear up for the grind that is the NHL playoffs. Like any marathon, it all begins with one step, so we’re looking at every first round series and predicting a winner.
Let’s dive right in.
Eastern Conference
Ottawa Seantors vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Head-to-head: Ottawa (3-0-0), Toronto (0-3-0)
The Battle of Ontario is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, with Auston Matthews and Brady Tkachuk taking over the roles of Mats Sundin and Daniel Alfredsson. Ottawa swept the season series and I think they’ll pose a much bigger threat than the typical wild-card team. Tkachuk has been dying for to play playoff hockey and I don’t see anyone of the Leafs he should be afraid of.
I’d love to see a Senators series upset just to see the sh*t storm it would stir up in Toronto, but when I look at it logically, the Leafs should win.
Series prediction: Maple Leafs in six games.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Head-to-head: Florida (2-2-0), Tampa Bay (2-2-0)
The Battle of Florida should be just as intense as the Battle of Ontario, but this should also be a much more skilled series. Both teams are legit Stanley Cup contenders, with the state of Florida reaching the Cup Final in each of the last five seasons. This is a coin-flip series if both teams have their full lineup available, but the Panthers will miss Aaron Ekblad for the first two games due to suspension and there’s serious concern about Matthew Tkachuk’s injury.
This will be a war, but Tampa Bay is healthy and firing on all cylinders at the right time.
Series prediction: Lightning in seven games.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals
Head-to-head: Montreal (1-2-0), Washington (2-0-1)
This is a huge mismatch on paper. Washington narrowly missed out on winning the Presidents’ Trophy, while Montreal didn’t clinch the playoffs until Game 82. The Canadiens’ young core is starting to come together, led by captain Nick Suzuki, who seems to always score when it matters. Meanwhile, the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois and the emergence of Dylan Strome into a true No. 1 centre have done a lot to quiet the doubters after the Capitals’ disastrous playoff performance last year.
The Habs have a chance to surprise Washington and steal a game, but this series won’t last long.
Series prediction: Capitals in five games.
New Jersey Devils vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Head-to-head: New Jersey (2-2-0), Carolina (2-2-0)
New Jersey was dealt a devastating blow with the loss of Jack Hughes to a season-ending shoulder injury and from the looks of things, even Devils fans aren’t expecting to win this series. Carolina really blundered when they traded for Mikko Rantanen, but they salvaged what they could out of that mistake and looked pretty good after the trade deadline.
The Hurricanes have stumbled in the last week or two, but they’ll get things back on track in the playoffs.
Series prediction: Hurricanes in six games.
Western Conference
St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets
Head-to-head: St. Louis (1-2-1), Winnipeg (3-1-0)
Winnipeg won the Presidents’ Trophy and their reward is a first round matchup against a red-hot St. Louis squad that went on a franchise-record 12-game win streak to cash a ticket to the postseason. I think the magic ends here for the Blues. The Jets have a potential Hart Trophy winner in net with Conner Hellebuyck and their offensive weapons like Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele outmatch anything St. Louis can produce.
Winnipeg was bounced by Colorado in five games last season, but I think they flip the script this year.
Series prediction: Jets in five games.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
Head-to-head: Colorado (2-1-0), Dallas (1-1-1)
Dallas won a second round series against the Avs in six games last year, but this is a very different Colorado team. They swapped out both goalies, three of four centres and replaced Mikko Rantanen with Martin Necas, all during the season. The depth of the Avalanche is miles better than it was last year and the Stars have some serious injury concerns with Miro Hesikanen and Jason Robertson.
If both teams were fully healthy, this would have been a coin-flip series.
Series prediction: Avalanche in six games.
Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Head-to-head: Minnesota (0-3-0), Vegas (3-0-0)
The Golden Knights quietly went about their business to win the Pacific Division, recording their third 50-win season in franchise history. The other two years they won 50 games they ended up reaching the Stanley Cup Final, losing in 2018 and winning in 2023. Minnesota hasn’t won a playoff series since 2015 and it’s not exactly encouraging that they were swept in the season series against Vegas.
You have to think there’s at least one sweep in the first round and unfortunately for the Wild, this is the most likely series to end in four games.
Series prediction: Golden Knights in four games.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
Head-to-head: Edmonton (1-2-1), Los Angeles (3-1-0)
L.A. finished the regular season with the best home record in the NHL, so having home ice advantage is a huge benefit as they look to snap a three-year streak of losing to the Oilers in the first round of the playoffs. This is the Kings’ best chance to beat Edmonton. The Oilers are vulnerable with injuries to multiple key players and there’s only so much Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can do on their own.
This will be a long series, but the edge has to go to the best home team in the NHL.
Series prediction: Kings in seven games.
