Canada’s Olympic journey in men’s basketball enters the knockout phase with a match versus hosts France in the quarterfinals on Tuesday.
The Canadian men’s basketball team’s performance in the group stage said a lot about where the program is in 2024. Having finished with a 3-0 record, Jordi Fernandez’s ensemble showed that it has what it takes to go deep in a tournament. On the flip side, there were some stressful moments in all three contests. Now, at the quarterfinals stage, the next test is playing France in its backyard. This time there will be no tomorrow.
Our Olympic basketball odds are confident that Canada will make it to the semis, pinning them as -7.5 favourites.
Canada vs. France Betting Odds
One supposes there is some irony that these two sides should meet in the quarterfinal phase. A more pessimistic view is that one should dread this matchup, at least from the Canadian perspective.
It was barely a few weeks ago that Canada and France met in an Olympic tune-up game in Orléans. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company won the day 85-73, which bodes well for Tuesday’s knockout round contest. Then again, that was a friendly. This is the real deal and France now has the benefit of having lived through the experience of playing Canada already.
Canada has not dealt well with the spread so far in these Olympics. Their 3-0 straight-up tally has only translated to a 1-2 record ATS. The oddsmakers keep thinking Canada should win with relative ease, yet two of the three matches ended up as nailbiters.
France also went 1-2 against the spread during the group stage. Their lone success came in the first match versus Brazil. That was followed by too narrow a victory against Japan and then a disastrous performance against the Germans.
Canada
There are many positives about this group. Through three games they have shown that the moment is not too big for them. Remember, hopes are very high for this 2024 Olympic side, more so than ever before. It isn’t always easy, but the team gets the job done and that’s what matters.
Case in point, the final group phase bout versus Spain. A lot was on the line on Friday. A win would secure first place for the Canadians. Spain had everything to play for: a win meant they went through, a defeat resulted in elimination. It played out appropriately, with Canada earning a narrow 88-85 victory. Shai led the way with 20 points, but this was Andrew Nemhard’s day. He came off the bench and was spectacular, hitting eight of his 10 shots for 18 points. RJ Barrett was great for the third game in a row (16 points) and Jamal Murray continues to be the team’s great facilitator (six dimes).
The big issue against France will be size. Canada is purely and simply a smaller team. Ball and player movement will be crucial to get past the French defence.
France
If there was ever a good time for France to regroup and change course, now would be it. They were among the favourites to earn a medal of any colour at these Olympics, but have not played like a side that deserves one. They needed a miraculous comeback and overtime against Japan (who were without Rui Hachimura down the stretch). Then came an embarassing 85-71 defeat to Germany on Friday.
The Germans are praised for their clever teamwork and ball movement. They made the French defence look hapless at times. Despite the presence of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, France were not big enough to win the rebound battle (36-29), although Wemby had 12 to himself. Matthew Strazel, Guershon Yabusele, Mathias Lessort are fine players but seem to lack the dynamism for France to look like a threat. Even though France has made it to the quarterfinals, it is difficult to argue that they have been impressive.
But anything can happen when a team’s back is against the wall.
