Why the Edmonton Oilers Will Win the Stanley Cup

At the time of writing, Edmonton is about to play its 81^st game of the regular season in Arizona against the Coyotes. That alone is a special occasion given what’s going on with the Coyotes, but we’re here to look ahead, even past Thursday’s curtain call against the Avalanche. With the Vancouver Canucks’ win on Tuesday over the Calgary Flames, the Oilers are locked into second place in the Pacific Division. Will they play the Vegas Golden Knights or Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the playoffs?

It doesn’t matter. Here’s why the Oilers are a good bet to win the Stanley Cup regardless.

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Oilers Can Get Over the Hump

Rather than bemoan Edmonton because it hasn’t won the Cup yet despite being loaded with talents like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman to name but a few, one should look at champions of yesteryear to see how they made it over the hump.

Consider the 2022 Colorado Avalanche. They were a playoff team in 2019, 2020, and 2021, even capturing the Presidents’ Trophy in the latter year. They certainly didn’t lack talent, not with Nathan MacKinnon and burgeoning star Cale Maker, yet every season concluded in disappointment. Incidentally, it would be the season after their President’s Trophy-winning one that they finally raised Lord Stanley’s trophy.

How about the Tampa Bay Lightning sides of 2020 and 2021? We recall the Stanley Cup Final loss to Chicago in 2015 and the unspeakably shocking first-round exit to Columbus in 2019. Those failures surely hurt, but also fueled the Lightning in many ways.

The point here is that not all great teams come out of nowhere. There is no shortage of examples of clubs, players, and coaches who had to go through a few seasons of heartache to finally taste glory. A Stanley Cup win this June for the Oilers would surprise no one. It would be a confirmation of everything they’ve been building for a handful of seasons.

Kris Knoblauch Hired as Head Coach

In November, when the Oilers were experiencing a disastrous start to the campaign, management gave head coach Jay Woodcroft his marching orders and replaced him with Kris Knoblauch. Knoblauch has worked in the NHL before with the Philadelphia Flyers as an assistant coach and the New Rangers for their AHL affiliate.

While not all of the adjustments scream out on the ice, they have made the Oilers an arguably more lethal team than last season. With respect to team goals against average (GA/G), shots against, and penalty killing (PK), Edmonton is superior each category. In 2022-23 they were 18^th in shots against, 17^th in GA/G (3.12), and had a PK efficiency of 77 per cent.

This season the Oilers are eighth in GA/G (2.83), third in shots against, and have a PK that works at 79 per cent. None of those categories are as sexy as Zach Hyman’s chase for 50 goals or McDavid’s 100 assists. It’s important to realize that is still a side that can score at will and now has a capable defence and a very confident Stuart Skinner between the pipes. Extending D Evan Bouchard last summer has turned out brilliantly as well: 18 goals, 63 assists, 81 points and a plus-minus of plus-35.

McDavid the Playmaker

Speaking of McDavid masterful assist-making, that’s become a huge asset for this team. While it may disappoint some that the Richmond Hill native is not scoring at the same blistering pace – 32 goals at the time of writing is nothing to sneeze at – he has morphed into a sensational playmaker.

Not that he was a bad one, he’s always been quite good, but this season has been special. Only five players in NHL history have completed a regular season with 100 assists, the others being Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and now McDavid and Nikita Kucherov. So now the guy who can rip shots through defences and score in the blink of an eye can help his linemates also score in the blink of an eye.

Do not be fooled by the fact that many Oilers players have lower points totals than last season. McDavid had 153 and is now at 132 with two games left. Draisaitl had 128 and is now at 106. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had 104 and now has 67. Others have improved their tallies, such as Warren Foegele (from 28 to 40), Darnell Nurse (from 32 to 43), and Evander Kane, although in the latter’s case that had to do with injuries last season. Lest he’s overlooked, Mattias Ekholm has become a crucial blue-line addition since arriving from Nashville during the 2022-23 campaign.

Why the Oilers Will Win the Stanley Cup

The relative balance that was lacking in 2022-23 is now present. If the Kings happen to be the first-round opponent, it honestly feels difficult to believe wholeheartedly in the “third time’s a charm” philosophy – Edmonton has ousted L.A. two years in a row. Unfortunately for the Kings, they’ll be facing the best version of the Oilers in three seasons.

If Vegas is the opponent in the first round, Edmonton is a better ensemble. Not by much and it would be a heck of a series, but better overall. They don’t give up as many chances as last year, they concede as many goals, and the offensive production has diversified.

The Western Conference is full of capable teams, but few possess the depth and talent of the Edmonton Oilers. It’s amazing to think that one of last year’s Stanley Cup favourites seriously improved, but that’s exactly the case with this team. Last year’s playoffs exposed some of the flaws people overlooked at the time and the Oilers have responded by doing everything to fix them.