What’s next for the Toronto Maple Leafs after winning the 2026 NHL draft lottery?

Did someone say ‘conspiracy’?

That’s the word some bitter fanbases used after the Toronto Maple Leafs won the draft lottery on Tuesday night.

It was an absolute dream result for the Leafs a day after a disastrous press conference to introduce new general manager John Chayka and senior executive advisor of hockey operations Mats Sundin.

And you can brush aside the conspiracy theories because if league commissioner Gary Bettman had really wanted to rig the lottery, the New York Rangers probably would have received the first overall pick.

Now that the lottery is behind us, it’s time to look ahead. Toronto has some big decisions to make, with Chayka and Sundin needing to choose a direction quick.

With all that in mind, here’s four directions the Maple Leafs could head after winning the draft lottery.

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Run it back

AKA: Keep the core together and draft Gavin McKenna to replace Mitch Marner.

By all accounts, this is the most likely direction the Leafs are headed. Ownership has made it clear they think this season is a one-off and they expect to be competitive again next year.

This is also the easiest direction the team could head. They keep captain Auston Matthews and star winger William Nylander then draft Gavin McKenna as a replacement for losing Mitch Marner last off-season.

But, while McKenna is good enough to make the jump to the NHL next season, he’s still a few years away from developing into the type of player Marner was in his last season in Toronto.

The belief with this plan will be McKenna can benefit from Matthews’ scoring ability and Matthews can benefit from adding a creative winger like McKenna.

However, I just don’t see why this plan makes sense. If the Leafs weren’t good enough to get out of the second round with Marner on the roster, how do they expect to be better with McKenna?

Adding McKenna is huge for Toronto, but it’s not nearly enough to make them a true Stanley Cup contender.

Retool

AKA: Draft McKenna and trade William Nylander or Matthew Knies for a No. 1 defenceman.

The Leafs need to completely retool their blue line. That’s easier said than done, so this lottery win could be the opportunity to finally add a No. 1 defenceman.

In this scenario, Toronto could view McKenna as a future replacement for fellow wingers William Nylander or Matthew Knies.

Trading Nylander makes the most sense in this case. At 30-years-old, the superstar Swede’s value won’t be any higher than it is right now and he has the kind of talent teams would be willing to give up a top defenceman to acquire.

Knies would also garner a lot of trade interest, but he wouldn’t bring the return Nylander would. And at just 23, Knies still has a lot of room to grow and develop, plus he’s locked up at a reasonable $7.75 million cap hit for four more seasons. “Reasonable cap hit” usually aren’t word you use to describe a player in this organization.

Trading Nylander is the best play if the Leafs want to retool and try to be competitive in a few years, but it puts a lot of pressure on McKenna to be an impact player soon.

Rebuild

AKA: Trade Matthews and build around McKenna.

What a difference a day makes. Most of the build up to the draft lottery from Toronto’s perspective questioned whether Matthews, who is signed for two more years, wanted out. Now it’s all about how Matthews and McKenna will tear up the league next year. I don’t think so.

If I’m the Maple Leafs general manager (than something has gone horribly wrong) I’d ship Matthews out of town this summer. Like Nylander, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Matthews’ value will never be higher and I don’t know what else the organization needs to see to stop believing Matthews is the guy who will bring Toronto a Stanley Cup.

All Matthews has done since he came to Toronto is hold the team hostage and take as much money as he can possibly get while only delivering two playoff series victories in 10 years.

If Matthews isn’t all-in on committing to the team for longer than the next couple of seasons, ship him out and get players who not only care, but can make an impact in the playoffs when it matters.

Chayka and Toronto’s management group can’t let Matthews turn into another Quinn Hughes situation. If winning the draft lottery is the only reason why Matthews is interested in staying, I’d strongly argue that’s not good enough from the captain of an original six franchise.

All-in

AKA: Trade the first overall pick.

I could also call this the delusional option. If Chayka thinks the core of this team can compete for a Stanley Cup it makes more sense to trade the first overall pick for an impact player(s) rather than spend a few years developing a player like McKenna.

However, trading the pick would be a huge gamble. Philadelphia and Boston now own Toronto’s next two first round picks unprotected, so if the Leafs swing and miss, they could bottom out and give up two high-end draft picks (three if they trade this year’s) right as Matthews’ contract comes to an end. Good luck getting Matthews to re-sign in that scenario.