Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Game 4 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds
There was a bit of deja vu in this series on Thursday in Ottawa as Toronto pulled out a 3-2 overtime win for the second straight game. Now trailing 3-0 in the first-round matchup, the Senators are officially in must-win territory.
Game 4 is hovering around a pick’em on the NHL odds, with the total set at 5.5.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators NHL Betting Odds
In case you’re wondering, the Leafs haven’t been on the right end of a series sweep since they beat Ottawa in four games in the first round of the 2001 playoffs. On the flip side, the Sens were last swept by Pittsburgh in the first round of the 2008 playoffs.
As can be expected, the series line has shifted significantly after three games. Toronto opened as a -200 favourite to win the series on the NHL futures board, while Ottawa was a +165 underdog. The Leafs are now massive -5000 series favourites, with the Sens at +1500.
And while only five teams in any sport have ever successfully overcome 3-0 deficits in a best-of-seven series, four of those comebacks happened in the NHL (Red Sox over the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS). The last comeback was relatively recent, with the L.A. Kings completing a reverse sweep of San Jose in the first round of the 2014 playoffs en route to winning their second Stanley Cup championship.
If you think this year’s Ottawa team is the next 2014 Kings, you can get the Sens at +20,000 to win the Stanley Cup, tied with Montreal for the longest odds. By comparison, Toronto has the third-shortest Cup odds at +700.
Toronto Maple Leafs
It was an unexpected overtime hero for the Leafs in Game 3, with Simon Benoit calling game just over a minute into the extra period. I say unexpected because Benoit finished the regular season with just one goal. Auston Matthews also picked up his first goal of the playoffs, Matthew Knies scored his second and Mitch Marner added two helpers. Marner (1G, 5A), Matthews (1G, 4A), John Tavares (2G, 2A) and William Nylander (1G, 3A) have driven the majority of the offence for the Leafs, which is a good sign that this team could finally go on a playoff run.
Anthony Stolarz didn’t need to do much with 18 saves on 20 shots faced in Game 3, but stability in net has been huge for the Leafs as it’s been one of the most glaring holes in recent playoff failures. Over Toronto’s three straight playoff wins, Stolarz has posted a stellar 1.95 goals-against average with a .926 save percentage.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators certainly have their backs up against the wall, but they can look at this positively and realize they were a couple fortunate overtime bounces away from actually leading this series 2-1. Claude Giroux opened the scoring in Game 3 and Brady Tkachuk tied it late in the third period. Tkachuk has scored in back-to-back games, but the Senators are struggling to generate offence with just two goals in each of the three games. A big reason for that lack of scoring has been Ottawa’s middling power play, which has scored on two of nine opportunities (22.2 per cent) in the series.
Another major issue has been the play of Linus Ullmark, who was beat three times on 20 shots in Game 3. Ullmark’s 3.91 GAA and .815 SV are worse than every other goalie in the playoffs this year other than Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner, who has himself already been benched. It’s not necessarily fair, but to win in the playoffs, your goalie has to steal games for you. Ullmark is not even close to doing that.
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