The Maple Leafs mounted an impressive comeback from a 2-0 deficit to post a 4-3 victory on home ice in Game 5, and arrive in Tampa Bay sporting a 3-2 series lead. The Lightning have avoided consecutive defeats over their past 53 postseason contests, but are just 3-4 all-time when playing Game 6 on home ice.

Despite pushing the Lightning to the brink of elimination with Tuesday’s victory, the Maple Leafs look to Game 6 pegged as +113 underdogs on the NHL odds, and enjoy the support of just 45 per cent of sports bettors. However, Toronto has improved to -370 chalk on the NHL playoff series prices. The Lightning are perched as -136 favourites to win Game 6, but have sunk to +280 longshots on the series prices. The total is once again pegged at 6.5, with -115 odds favouring the OVER to pay out for the fifth time in this series.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL Betting Odds

Thursday night’s Game 6 matchup at Amalie Arena marks the 10th overall meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto’s victory in Game 5 extends a trend that has seen these clubs take turns tallying the win over their previous nine meetings. The Maple Leafs have posted two road wins so far in the series, and topped the Lightning in four of six road clashes. The Leafs’ narrow Game 5 win snapped a stretch of seven straight head-to-head clashes settled by multi-goal margins. These two teams have combined to score an average of 8.20 total goals during a 5-0-0 run for the OVER in matchups at Amalie Arena.

While the Lightning look to avoid losing their first playoff series since 2019, the Maple Leafs aim to snap a run of seven straight postseason series defeats. Toronto is also winless in their past eight when poised to clinch a series victory, and has lost in six of nine Game 6 appearances, with five of those defeats coming in overtime.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Elimination Thursday at Sports Interaction 💥

Will the Leafs, Kings, Blues and Hurricanes punch their ticket to the next round? @DavidBastl is convinced he has the answers.

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— Sports Interaction (@SIASport) May 12, 2022

Leaf fans braced themselves for yet another playoff collapse after the club spotted the Lightning a 2-0 lead in Game 5. Instead, the Leafs embarked on an impressive comeback. William Nylander led the charge with a goal and two assists. Nylander has now tallied five points in his past two outings after being held off the scoresheet through the first three games of the series. Auston Matthews’ third goal of the playoffs was the game winner. The NHL’s top scorer also threw his weight around, getting credited with seven of the club’s 31 hits on the night.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov turned in his third multi-point performance of the series with a pair of assists in Game 5. However, Kucherov has scored just once in the series, and has recorded just four total shots on goal over his past three home appearances. Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman have combined to score six of the club’s eight first-period markers so far in the series. Overall, the Lightning have outscored Toronto by an 8-2 overall margin in first period action, but have surrendered 13 total third-period goals, and have twice blown third-period leads.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Maple Leafs Team Leaders

TOR

Points	Auston Matthews 106
+ / -	Michael Bunting 27
Shots	Auston Matthews 348
Penalty Mins	Wayne Simmonds 96
Wins	Jack Campbell 31
GAA	Jack Campbell 2.64

TB

Points	Steven Stamkos 106
+ / -	Victor Hedman 26
Shots	Steven Stamkos 241
Penalty Mins	Pat Maroon 134
Wins	Andrei Vasilevskiy 39
GAA	Brian Elliott 2.43

TOR

Points	Auston Matthews 9
+ / -	TJ Brodie 5
Shots	Auston Matthews 29
Penalty Mins	Ilya Lyubushkin 18
Wins	Jack Campbell 3
GAA	Jack Campbell 3.15

TB

Points	Nikita Kucherov 8
+ / -	Nicholas Paul 2
Shots	Victor Hedman 27
Penalty Mins	Jan Rutta 17
Wins	Andrei Vasilevskiy 4
GAA	Andrei Vasilevskiy 3.04

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Lightning Team Leaders

TOR

Points	Auston Matthews 106
+ / -	Michael Bunting 27
Shots	Auston Matthews 348
Penalty Mins	Wayne Simmonds 96
Wins	Jack Campbell 31
GAA	Jack Campbell 2.64

TB

Points	Steven Stamkos 106
+ / -	Victor Hedman 26
Shots	Steven Stamkos 241
Penalty Mins	Pat Maroon 134
Wins	Andrei Vasilevskiy 39
GAA	Brian Elliott 2.43

TOR

Points	Auston Matthews 9
+ / -	TJ Brodie 5
Shots	Auston Matthews 29
Penalty Mins	Ilya Lyubushkin 18
Wins	Jack Campbell 3
GAA	Jack Campbell 3.15

TB

Points	Nikita Kucherov 8
+ / -	Nicholas Paul 2
Shots	Victor Hedman 27
Penalty Mins	Jan Rutta 17
Wins	Andrei Vasilevskiy 4
GAA	Andrei Vasilevskiy 3.04

Injuries

Toronto

Rasmus Sandin (D)

Out indefinitely Knee - 09 / 05 / 22

Ondrej Kase (RW)

Prob Fri Personal - 06 / 05 / 22

William Nylander (RW)

Prob Wed Food Poisoning - 04 / 05 / 22

Kyle Clifford (LW)

Elig Fri Suspension - 03 / 05 / 22

John Tavares (C)

Out Fri Rest - 29 / 04 / 22

Mitchell Marner (RW)

Out Fri Rest - 28 / 04 / 22

Timothy Liljegren (D)

Ques Tues Undisclosed - 24 / 04 / 22

John Tavares (C)

Out Sun Rest - 24 / 04 / 22

Michael Bunting (LW)

Prob Wed Lower Body - 23 / 04 / 22

Jake Muzzin (D)

Prob Tues Undisclosed - 15 / 04 / 22

Tampa Bay

Brayden Point (C)

Doubt Thurs Lower Body - 15 / 05 / 22

Brayden Point (C)

day-to-day Undisclosed - 14 / 05 / 22

Jan Rutta (D)

Ques Fri Head - 04 / 05 / 22

Brayden Point (C)

Prob Mon Lower Body - 01 / 05 / 22

Erik Cernak (D)

Prob Thurs Face - 26 / 04 / 22

Jan Rutta (D)

Ques Fri Undisclosed - 25 / 04 / 22

Mikhail Sergachev (D)

Ques Tues Undisclosed - 25 / 04 / 22

Brayden Point (C)

Prob Sat Lower Body - 21 / 04 / 22

Brian Elliott (G)

Ques Fri Illness - 31 / 03 / 22

Ryan McDonagh (D)

Mid April Upper Body - 25 / 03 / 22

Injuries

Toronto

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Rasmus Sandin (D)	Out indefinitely	Knee - 09 / 05 / 22	1-2	3-0	+ -
Sandin is sidelined with a knee injury, and it has yet to be established when he will return to the lineup.
Ondrej Kase (RW)	Prob Fri	Personal - 06 / 05 / 22	2-3	5-0	+ -
Kase is tending to a personal matter, but he is projected to take on the Lightning in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round.
William Nylander (RW)	Prob Wed	Food Poisoning - 04 / 05 / 22	3-3	5-1	+ -
Nylander is on the mend after a case of food poisoning, and it is anticipated that he will take part in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Lightning.
Kyle Clifford (LW)	Elig Fri	Suspension - 03 / 05 / 22	3-3	5-1	+ -
Clifford is serving a one-game suspension for boarding, and he is eligible to return for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Lightning.
John Tavares (C)	Out Fri	Rest - 29 / 04 / 22	5-3	6-2	+ -
Tavares will not face the Bruins on Friday, as he will be given a day of rest.
Mitchell Marner (RW)	Out Fri	Rest - 28 / 04 / 22	5-3	6-2	+ -
Marner is absent from the lineup for Friday's clash with the Bruins as he will be given a day of rest.
Timothy Liljegren (D)	Ques Tues	Undisclosed - 24 / 04 / 22	7-3	6-3-1	+ -
Liljegren was held out of the last game due to an unspecified ailment, and it is unclear if he will play Tuesday against the Red Wings.
John Tavares (C)	Out Sun	Rest - 24 / 04 / 22	7-3	6-3-1	+ -
Tavares will not suit up against the Capitals on Sunday, as he will be given a day of rest.
Michael Bunting (LW)	Prob Wed	Lower Body - 23 / 04 / 22	7-4	7-3-1	+ -
Bunting is battling a lower-body injury, but it is projected that he will face the Lightning in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Jake Muzzin (D)	Prob Tues	Undisclosed - 15 / 04 / 22	10-5	9-3-3	+ -
Muzzin has been idle due to an unannounced aliment, but it is projected that he will return for Tuesday's matchup versus the Red Wings.

Tampa Bay

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Brayden Point (C)	Doubt Thurs	Lower Body - 15 / 05 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Point is battling a lower-body injury, and it is unlikely that he will dress for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference versus the Panthers.
Brayden Point (C)	day-to-day	Undisclosed - 14 / 05 / 22	1-1	1-1	+ -
Point exited Saturday's game with an unspecified issue, and it is unknown if he will return.
Jan Rutta (D)	Ques Fri	Head - 04 / 05 / 22	4-3	5-2	+ -
Rutta is managing a head laceration, and it is uncertain if he will suit up for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Maple Leafs.
Brayden Point (C)	Prob Mon	Lower Body - 01 / 05 / 22	5-3	6-2	+ -
Point is dealing with a lower-body injury, but it is likely that he will be in the lineup for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Maple Leafs.
Erik Cernak (D)	Prob Thurs	Face - 26 / 04 / 22	7-4	8-3	+ -
Cernak was forced from the previous game with a facial laceration, but it is projected that he will take on the Blue Jackets on Thursday.
Jan Rutta (D)	Ques Fri	Undisclosed - 25 / 04 / 22	7-4	8-3	+ -
Rutta has missed the previous two games due to an injury to an unlisted location, leaving his status for Friday's clash with the Islanders in question.
Mikhail Sergachev (D)	Ques Tues	Undisclosed - 25 / 04 / 22	7-4	8-3	+ -
Sergachev was forced from the last contest with an undefined issue, and it is unknown if he will take on the Blue Jackets on Tuesday.
Brayden Point (C)	Prob Sat	Lower Body - 21 / 04 / 22	9-5	11-3	+ -
Point has sat out the last two contests dealing with a lower-body injury, but it is projected that he will battle the Predators on Saturday.
Brian Elliott (G)	Ques Fri	Illness - 31 / 03 / 22	12-12	18-6	+ -
Elliott is ailing from a non-COVID-19 illness, and it is unclear if he will be active for Friday's tilt against the Blackhawks.
Ryan McDonagh (D)	Mid April	Upper Body - 25 / 03 / 22	13-14	18-9	+ -
McDonagh is idle with an upper-body injury, and it is projected that he will be sidelined until the middle of April.