Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 Prediction, NHL Odds

Daniel Coyle | Updated May 12, 2022

Can the Toronto Maple Leafs seal the deal and claim their first playoff series victory of the NHL’s salary cap era when they hit the ice on Thursday for Game 6 of their first-round matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning?

May 12, 2022, 7:30 PM ET
Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay
Puckline +1.5 -205
Moneyline +121
Over / Under o +6.5


Betting Action


Puckline -1.5 +171
Moneyline -146
Over / Under u +6.5


Betting Action


The Maple Leafs mounted an impressive comeback from a 2-0 deficit to post a 4-3 victory on home ice in Game 5, and arrive in Tampa Bay sporting a 3-2 series lead. The Lightning have avoided consecutive defeats over their past 53 postseason contests, but are just 3-4 all-time when playing Game 6 on home ice.

Despite pushing the Lightning to the brink of elimination with Tuesday’s victory, the Maple Leafs look to Game 6 pegged as +113 underdogs on the NHL odds, and enjoy the support of just 45 per cent of sports bettors. However, Toronto has improved to -370 chalk on the NHL playoff series prices. The Lightning are perched as -136 favourites to win Game 6, but have sunk to +280 longshots on the series prices. The total is once again pegged at 6.5, with -115 odds favouring the OVER to pay out for the fifth time in this series.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL Betting Odds

Thursday night’s Game 6 matchup at Amalie Arena marks the 10th overall meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto’s victory in Game 5 extends a trend that has seen these clubs take turns tallying the win over their previous nine meetings. The Maple Leafs have posted two road wins so far in the series, and topped the Lightning in four of six road clashes. The Leafs’ narrow Game 5 win snapped a stretch of seven straight head-to-head clashes settled by multi-goal margins. These two teams have combined to score an average of 8.20 total goals during a 5-0-0 run for the OVER in matchups at Amalie Arena.

While the Lightning look to avoid losing their first playoff series since 2019, the Maple Leafs aim to snap a run of seven straight postseason series defeats. Toronto is also winless in their past eight when poised to clinch a series victory, and has lost in six of nine Game 6 appearances, with five of those defeats coming in overtime.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Leaf fans braced themselves for yet another playoff collapse after the club spotted the Lightning a 2-0 lead in Game 5. Instead, the Leafs embarked on an impressive comeback. William Nylander led the charge with a goal and two assists. Nylander has now tallied five points in his past two outings after being held off the scoresheet through the first three games of the series. Auston Matthews’ third goal of the playoffs was the game winner. The NHL’s top scorer also threw his weight around, getting credited with seven of the club’s 31 hits on the night.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov turned in his third multi-point performance of the series with a pair of assists in Game 5. However, Kucherov has scored just once in the series, and has recorded just four total shots on goal over his past three home appearances. Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman have combined to score six of the club’s eight first-period markers so far in the series. Overall, the Lightning have outscored Toronto by an 8-2 overall margin in first period action, but have surrendered 13 total third-period goals, and have twice blown third-period leads.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?