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Andrew Rogers
Capitals vs. Lightning: Game 5 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds
If you could pick one song to summarize the first four games of the Eastern Conference final, you could do worse than choosing “King of the Road.” And the Tampa Bay Lightning would love nothing more than to change that narrative as they host the Washington Capitals on Saturday night in Game 5 of a bizarre best-of-seven series that has seen the road team win each of the first four games. Yet, despite the strange trend, the Lightning have oddsmakers on their side.
Capitals vs Lightning Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Analysis
The Lightning are carrying a large number into Game 5 – one that might be a little too big given how they struggled in the first two games at Amalie Arena, and were somewhat fortunate to escape with wins in Games 3 and 4 despite being outshot 76-43 in those contests. Getting the Capitals at +145 might seem too good to be true for some bettors who will undoubtedly lean on the fact that Washington comes in having won 14 of its previous 16 road games.
Yet, as frustrating as it has been to get a handle on this series from a results standpoint, totals betting has been even more infuriating, with three of the first four games in the series resulting in a push. And bettors get no relief Saturday, with Game 5 expected to carry a total of six. This might be a good time to take the odds hit and opt for an alternate over/under; betting down to 5.5 appears to be a safe play, with all four games having gone above that number.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals don’t necessarily need their goaltending tandem of Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer to play like Vasilevskiy – they just need one of them to start making more saves. Washington has done well to limit opposing scoring chances over the past two rounds, but are a dismal 3-4 in games in which they have allowed 25 or fewer shots in that span. Washington also needs to reinvigorate a power play that went 0-for-7 in Games 3 and 4.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning can thank goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy for staying in this series, as he turned aside 36 shots in both Games 3 and 4 to restore Tampa Bay’s home-ice “advantage” – and with it, -180 odds to dispatch the Capitals and reach the Stanley Cup final. The Lightning power play has also made a significant difference so far, having produced six of the team’s 12 goals so far; Tampa Bay has at least one man-advantage goal in every game in the series.
