Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 7 Prediction, Playoff Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated May 30, 2021

It's been a rollercoaster of a series for Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who went from being a healthy scratch in Game 1, to scoring the overtime winner on Saturday and helping Montreal force a Game 7 in this series.

Montreal
24-21-8-3
AT
May 31, 2021, 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
Toronto
35-14-7
Puckline +1.5 -160
Moneyline +157
Over / Under o +5.5

53%

Betting Action

47%

Puckline -1.5 +133
Moneyline -188
Over / Under u +5.5

53%

Betting Action

47%

It could only ever have ended in Game 7, right?  It’s fitting that two Original Six teams with so much history are set to go the distance after the Montreal Canadiens picked up their second straight overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night at the Bell Centre.  The series will now move back to Toronto for a final game on Monday night, with the winner facing the Winnipeg Jets in the second round and the loser going home.

Toronto is a -198 favourite to win on the NHL odds with a total of 5.5.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Odds

The Leafs haven’t won a playoff series in over 15 years and this stat won’t make Toronto fans any more confident.  Since 2018, the Leafs have lost six straight playoff elimination games in which a win would have advanced them to the next round.  That lack of finish has completely shot bettors’ confidence in Toronto.  For the first time in this series, early bettors are siding with Montreal, albeit at a razor-thin 51 per cent majority.  Bettors are also split evenly down the middle on the Over/Under.  Four of six games in this series have gone Under.

Before Saturday’s loss, the NHL Futures board listed Toronto behind only the Colorado Avalanche as the favourite to win the Stanley Cup.  The Leafs are now the sixth-favourite to win the Stanley Cup at +625.  They’ve won nine of their last 13 home games against Montreal, although they’ve dropped two of three home games in this series.

Oddsmakers still aren’t completely sold on the Canadiens, as their +2200 odds to win the Stanley Cup are last among all the teams left in the playoffs.  Game 7 could at least be a high scoring affair.  Montreal has hit the Over in seven of their last 10 road games, including two of three in this series.

Montreal Canadiens

It’s been a rollercoaster of a series for Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who went from being a healthy scratch in Game 1, to scoring the overtime winner in Game 6’s 3-2 win.  It was Kotkaniemi’s third goal of the playoffs.  Montreal, however, has been playing with fire over the last couple games.  The Habs are the first team in NHL history to surrender back-to-back multi-goal third period leads when facing elimination and win both games.  It’s a record that shows just how up and down this series has been.

The Canadiens also broke through their power play woes.  On the man advantage in the first period, Corey Perry and Tyler Toffoli each notched their first goals of the series, breaking an 0-for-15 stretch through the previous five games.  Carey Price, however, was the biggest factor on Saturday, stopping 41 shots, including 13 in overtime.  Jake Evans made his return to the lineup in Game 6 after missing the previous four games with an undisclosed injury.  Evans recorded one shot and five hits in just over 23 minutes of action.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The small seed of doubt that began creeping down the spines of Leafs fans after Game 5’s loss has likely turned into full fledged panic after Saturday’s loss.  Outside of William Nylander, Toronto’s big name stars haven’t been good enough.  Auston Matthews, who led the NHL in goals this season, has only found the back of the net once, while linemate Mitch Marner hasn’t scored in his last 17 playoff games.  Nylander leads the team with seven points (4G, 3A) in the series, while Alexander Kerfoot (1G, 5A) is the only other Leafs’ player averaging a point-per-game.  Jason Spezza and TJ Brodie had the goals for Toronto in Game 6 and Jack Campbell made 28 saves.

It wasn’t for lack of trying that the Leafs couldn’t close out the game on Saturday.  Toronto outshot the Habs 15-6 in the third period and 13-2 in overtime.  They also had a nice addition back into the lineup for Game 6.  Nick Foligno, who missed the previous three games with a lower-body injury, drew back into the lineup.  Foligno had three shots, three hits and was plus-1 in 18:37 of ice time.  Watch for the status of defenceman Jake Muzzin leading up to Game 7.  Muzzin left Saturday’s game in the second period because of a lower-body injury and there’s been no update on his status, yet.

NHL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs?

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