Can Connor McDavid finally hit the 50-goal mark? NHL Odds, Props

It’s almost unbelievable that as much as Connor McDavid has already left his mark on the NHL, the consensus best hockey player on the planet has never scored 50 goals in any of his seven NHL seasons.  Some of that comes down to bad luck, however, with injuries and a couple of COVID shortened seasons, so it seems like only a matter of time before the Oilers captain hits the 50-goal plateau.  On pace for a career-year in goals early in the season, is this the year McDavid finally hit the elusive benchmark?

Finding 50

While scoring 50 goals seems like a hallmark of every elite sniper in NHL history, it’s worth considering just how difficult that number is to achieve.  There’s been exactly 200 times in league history that a player has finished with 50 goals in one season.  Of that number, only 94 different players have actually hit the mark and only 46 players have done it more than once.

For context in the modern era, over the last decade there have only been nine 50-goal seasons between four different players and five of the last 10 seasons have not had any 50-goal scorers.  There was a jump last year, but there was still just four players to hit the threshold – Auston Matthews (60), Leon Draisaitl (55), Chris Kreider (52) and Alex Ovechkin (50).  Of that group, only Draisaitl and Ovechkin have accomplished the feat more than once.  Here’s a breakdown of all 50-goal scorers over the last 10 seasons:

2021-22: 4 (Matthews, Draisaitl, Kreider, Ovechkin)

2020-21: 0 (COVID shortened 56-game season)

2019-2020: 0 (COVID modified schedule, teams played 68-71 games)

2018-19: 2 (Ovechkin, Draisaitl)

2017-18: 0

2016-17: 0

2015-16: 1 (Ovechkin)

2014-15: 1 (Ovechkin)

2013-14: 1 (Ovechkin)

2012-13: 0 (lockout shortened 48-game season)

McDavid’s Never Scored 50?

With undeniable talent on a level very rarely seen in NHL history, McDavid has always been known more as a passer and playmaker than a pure goalscorer.  I would argue McDavid’s elite playmaking ability is so impressive, it essentially overshadows his pure goalscoring talent.

McDavid has three 40-goal seasons, including a career-high 44 last year, but the 50-goal plateau has eluded him.  There’s reason to believe that may not be the case this season.  He’s one of the best hockey players on the planet playing on a strong team with another of the other best players in the world in Draisaitl.  But more importantly, last year’s run to the Western Conference Final seems to have sparked something in McDavid and the Oilers in general.  Through nine games, McDavid leads the NHL in both points (18) and goals (9).  That’s math even I can do, putting McDavid on pace for a 164-point, 82-goal season.  Obviously that pace is not sustainable and he won’t hit either of those numbers, but is it so far fetched to think he can average a point-per-game over the remaining 73 games?  Barring a major injury, this looks like the year McDavid notches 50.