Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals Series Prediction, NHL Odds
For the 12th time in the past 14 years, the Boston Bruins have earned a playoff spot and they’ll have some familiar company when they hit the ice for Game 1 on Saturday night in Washington. Zdeno Chara, who captained the Bruins in each of those 14 years, has traded in the familiar black and yellow ‘B’ logo, for the red, white and blue of the Washington Capitals. This is the Caps’ seventh straight postseason appearance and their 13th in the past 14 seasons.
Boston opened as a -197 favourite to win the series on the NHL Futures Board.
Bruins vs. Capitals Betting Analysis
These teams haven’t met in the playoffs since 2012, a first round series that Washington won in seven games. If this series goes anything like the regular season series between these teams, we’re in for a good show. These teams each came away with four wins against each other this season and the total combined score was 26-25 for Boston. It’s worth noting, however, that two of those Washington wins took extra time, so technically Boston actually won the season series. The Over hit in five of the eight games.
Boston finished the season strong this year, going 12-5 straight up over their last 17 games. They have, however, had trouble in Washington in the past, going 3-11 SU in their last 14 games in D.C. The B’s were 11-17 against the spread on the road this season, covering in three of their last five road games. The Under has trended a lot for Boston. The total fell short of the number in 17 of 28 games outside of TD Garden, including in four of their last five road games.
The Capitals won seven of their last 10 games to finish out the regular season, including four of their last five. They haven’t been a great cover option at home, going 11-17 ATS at Capital One Arena and covering in just one of their last six games. Although Washington hit the Over in 15 of 28 home games this season, the total actually went Under in five of the last six D.C. games.
Boston Bruins
Entering this season, the Bruins had lost 17 of their last 19 regular season games against Washington, so going 4-2-2 against the Caps this year is a huge improvement. Brad Marchand will be a big piece for Boston in this series. The 33-year-old winger is somehow getting better with age, averaging career-highs in points per game (1.30) and goals per game (0.55) this season. Marchand’s 69 points (29G, 40A) were 21 more than the next closest Boston player and he finished third NHL points and sixth in goals. Taylor Hall is likely the X-factor in this series. With 14 points (8G, 6A) in 16 games since his trade to Boston, Hall is reestablishing himself as an elite NHL player and he’ll get to play in the playoffs for just the third time in his career.
The Bruins look like they’re in a solid place in terms of goaltending. After dealing with injury issues, Tuukka Rask finished the season 7-1-0 with a 2.00 goals-against average and .923 save percentage over his last nine starts. Boston also has rookie Jeremy Swayman (7-3-0, 1.50 GAA, .945 SV) and veteran Jaroslav Halak (9-6-4, 2.53 GAA, .905 SV) waiting in the wings.
To win this series, Boston needs their defence to hold up. They’ve had injury issues at time this year, but they were still able to hold opponents to just 2.39 goals per game, fourth-lowest in the NHL. Picking up Mike Reilly at the trade deadline solidified the lineup, but there are still questions on how deep and how healthy this Bruins back-end really is.
Washington Capitals
The main concern for Washington in this series is the health of their roster. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and John Carlson have all been banged up over the last couple weeks. Evgeny Kuznetsov and goaltender Ilya Samsonov have also been on the COVID protocols list recently, although it’s just Kuznetsov who remains. Backstrom was a rock for the Caps this season. He led Washington with 53 points (15G, 38A) and also had a team-high nine points (1G, 8A) against the Bruins. Anthony Mantha could also have a big part to play. Acquired at the trade deadline, Mantha scored in his first five games with the Capitals, including once against Boston. This will be his first taste of playoff action in six NHL seasons.
Vitek Vanecek will get the nod in net to start this series. The rookie has held his own, while earning the bulk of starts this season, going 21-10-4 with a 2.69 GAA and .908 SV. The Caps can also fall back on Samsonov (13-4-1, 2.69 GAA, .902 SV) and Craig Anderson (2-1-0, 2.13 GAA, .915 SV).
Like every team in the playoffs, Washington needs to be healthy to have a shot. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie and Carlson have all missed time in the past week and Kuznetsov is still in COVID protocols. The Caps aren’t at full strength right now, but if they can get there soon, they deserve to be the favourite in this series.
NHL Series Prediction: Who Will Win Bruins vs. Capitals?
It’s been a tight season series, but playoff time is when the good teams are separated from the great teams. This won’t be an easy series for either team, but we see home ice advantage being the difference and Washington winning in seven games.
