Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 Prediction, NHL Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jun 21, 2022

The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to build on a perfect 8-0 home record in the playoffs when they host the Colorado Avalanche for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday.

Colorado
56-19-5-2
AT
June 22, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay
51-23-3-5
Puckline -1.5 +225
Moneyline -109
Over / Under o +6

41%

Betting Action

59%

Puckline +1.5 -272
Moneyline -111
Over / Under u +6

41%

Betting Action

59%

A shift to home ice changed Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup Final fortune as the Lightning finished Monday’s Game 3 with a commanding 6-2 victory.  Tampa will now try to even the series at two games apiece when they host the Colorado Avalanche for Game 4 on Wednesday.

Colorado is a razor-thin -115 favourite to win Game 4, while the total sits at 6.0 on the NHL odds.

Avalanche vs. Lightning NHL Playoffs Betting Odds

Home cooking has been the key to this head-to-head series as the last four games between these teams have been won by the home side.  The total has also been fairly consistent, with the Over hitting in four of five total games this year, regular season and playoffs combined, including all three games of the Stanley Cup Final.

The Avalanche’s Game 3 loss broke a perfect road record during this post-season, making them 7-1 outside of Denver in the these playoffs.  As the highest scoring team in the playoffs, it’s no surprise to see the Over hit in four of their last five games.  Colorado now sits as a -357 favourite to win the series.

Tampa Bay continued their dominance on home ice in Game 3 and they now sit a perfect 8-0 at Amalie Arena in these playoffs.  This has been a higher scoring series than they’re used to dealing with as the total has gone Under in 10 of their last 14 games overall.  The Bolts currently sit as +246 series underdogs.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche had a huge chance to take a nearly insurmountable 3-0 series lead on Monday, but ran into a hot goalie on one side and a cold goalie on their own side.  Colorado outshot the Lightning 39-32 in the game, including 12-6 in the third period, but couldn’t solve Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy in the second half of the game.  Gabriel Landeskog scored twice on the power play, but that was all the offence the Avs could muster.  Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar assisted on both goals.

One major weak point for Colorado heading into this series was the goaltending mismatch and that was on full display in Game 3.  After facing just 16 shots in a shutout performance in Game 2, Darcy Kuemper was chased from the Avalanche net midway through the second period of Game 3 after allowing five goals on 22 shots.  Pavel Francouz stopped nine of 10 shots faced in relief.  Kuemper, who is 8-3 with a 2.76 goals-against average, .892 save percentage and one shutout in the playoffs, isn’t a lock to start Game 4.  There’s a chance Francouz (6-0, 2.81 GAA, .906 SV, one shutout) could get the nod.

Andre Burakovsky (hand) and Nazem Kadri (thumb) are both listed as day-to-day and remain questionable for Game 4.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning showed no panic after a blowout loss in Game 2 and locked things down defensively in Game 3, before chasing Colorado’s goalie from the net with four second period goals.  Anthony Cirelli, Ondrej Palat, Nick Paul, Steven Stamkos, Pat Maroon and Corey Perry all scored for the Bolts on Monday.  Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman each had two assists.  Perry became the first player in NHL history to score a goal in four different Stanley Cup Finals with four different teams (Anaheim, Dallas, Montreal and Tampa Bay).

After allowing a playoff career-high seven goals in Game 2, Vasilevskiy bounced back in Game 3, stopping 37 of 39 shots faced.  Vasilevskiy became the seventh goalie in the expansion era with 10 or more wins in the Stanley Cup Final.  Despite playing the first two games of the series, Brayden Point missed Game 3 with the same lower-body injury that caused him to miss the 10 previous games before this series.  Even more concerning for the Bolts is the status of Kucherov, who left late in the third period on Monday with an apparent leg injury.  There’s been no update on Point or Kucherov’s status for Game 4.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Avalanche vs. Lightning?

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