2026 NHL Draft Lottery: Who will pick first overall?
The NHL’s non-playoff teams take centre-stage on Tuesday night.
We’re officially into the second-round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs, but with only one game on Tuesday’s schedule, the NHL’s focus will at least briefly turn to the draft lottery at 7 p.m. ET.
The disappointment of the 16 teams that didn’t make the playoffs this year can turn to hope for the future as the right to draft first overall is up for grabs.
Will the Vancouver Canucks turn a last-place finish in the NHL standings into a franchise-altering top draft pick? Or, will another team’s rebuild plans kick into overdrive with a lottery win?
Finishing last in the standings, however, doesn’t guarantee Vancouver anything. In fact, the Canucks actually have an 81.5 per cent chance of not winning the lottery.
So, how exactly does the draft lottery work? Let’s get into it.
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How does the draft lottery work?
There will be 14 numbered ping-pong balls placed into the lottery machine. Each team is assigned a share of four-number combinations which are weighted based on how they finished in the standings.
Vancouver, who finished last in the overall standings, have 185 of a possible 1,000 winning combinations or an 18.5 per cent chance to win. The Washington Capitals have the longest odds with just five winning combinations.
One misconception is that the draft lottery is one draw. However, the lottery is actually two four-ball draws: the first is for the first overall pick and the second draw is for the second overall pick.
Keep in mind, teams can only move up 10 spots, so only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the first overall pick. For example, if the Capitals win the first draw they would move from the 16th overall pick to the sixth overall pick. In that scenario, the top five teams would stay in the same order.
The lottery odds will change as soon the first draw begins and it’s possible some teams are eliminated with the first ball drawn. After the first three balls are revealed, we’ll know which teams are still in the running and which number they need to win.
With the odds stacked so heavily against last-place Vancouver, every team has a path to winning the lottery. The New York Islanders won the lottery last year with a 3.5 per cent chance and they moved up from 10th overall to select Matthew Schaffer, this year’s Calder Trophy favourite, first overall.
What are the odds?
Teams are placed in reverse-order of where they finished in the overall standings, so the Canucks have the best odds to win either draw.
The table below shows the odds each team has of winning the first draw. The numbers will change as each of the four balls are pulled in the first draw.
The winner of the first draw will not be included in the second draw, so every team that does not win the first draw will have improved odds to win the second draw.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 18.5% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 13.5% |
| New York Rangers | 11.5% |
| Calgary Flames | 9.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 8.5% |
| Seattle Kraken | 7.5% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 6.5% |
| Florida Panthers | 6.0% |
| San Jose Sharks | 5.0% |
| Nashville Predators | 3.5% |
| St. Louis Blues | 3.0% |
| New Jersey Devils | 2.5% |
| New York Islanders | 2.0% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.5% |
| St. Louis Blues* | 0.5% |
| Washington Capitals | 0.5% |
Draft lottery night will only lock in the selection for the first 16 overall picks. Selections 17-31 will be based on the playoff finishes of the postseason teams.
The Stanley Cup winner would normally get the 32nd overall pick, but the Ottawa Senators will pick last in the first round this year because of a penalty from league rule violations.
One other important thing to note is the lottery only determines the first round. Rounds 2-7 are based purely on the standings, so Vancouver will pick first in those rounds.
What do you need to know about this year’s lottery?
- While the Canucks only have an 18.5 per cent chance of winning the lottery, they actually hold 25.5 per cent odds of picking first overall. That’s because teams can’t move up more than 10 spots, so if any of teams ranked 12-16 win the first lottery, Vancouver will keep the first overall pick.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs currently hold the fifth overall pick. However, if any team below them wins either of the two draws, except for Washington, Toronto will drop to sixth overall and be forced to send the pick to Boston as part of last year’s Brandon Carlo trade. If a team ahead of Toronto wins, they keep the pick and draft fifth overall. If the Capitals win either draw, Washington moves up to sixth overall and the Maple Leafs stay put with the fifth pick.
- The St. Louis Blue are on the list twice. There is an asterisk next to the 15th overall pick because it was traded from Detroit to St. Louis as part of the Justin Faulk deal at this year’s deadline.
- The NHL implemented a new rule in 2022 that prevents teams from winning the lottery more than twice in a five-year span. The last four lottery winners are Montreal, Chicago, San Jose and the Islanders. The Blackhawks, Sharks and Islanders are all in this year’s lottery and none of them would be restricted from winning.
Who will go first overall?
Penn State winger Gavin McKenna has been the favourite to go first overall in the draft all year. After a slow start to the season, McKenna heated up and finished with 51 points (15G, 36A) in 35 games for the Nittany Lions. Sitting at -300 to go first overall, the only knock on McKenna’s game is his unstructured defensive play. Still, McKenna’s offensive upside would be hard to pass up by any NHL general manager.
The biggest threat to McKenna going first overall is another winger, top international prospect Ivar Stenberg of Sweden. Stenberg doesn’t hold the same elite offensive skills of McKenna, but he has a better all-round game and he’s likely in a better position to make an immediate impact at the NHL level. For comparison, Stenberg’s 33 points (11G, 22A) in the SHL this season is one shy of Henrik Sedin’s draft-year total and more than Leo Carlsson or William Eklund produced in their draft seasons.