2026 IIHF Men’s World Championship Quarterfinal Odds, Prediction: Team USA vs. Team Canada

We’re down to the quarterfinals of the 2026 IIHF World Championship, with Canada and the United States facing off in a North American rivalry game on Thursday. Puck drop is set for 10:20 a.m. ET at BCF Arena in Fribourg, Switzerland and the game can be watched on TSN in Canada.

These teams followed different paths to get to the quarters as Canada won Group B with a perfect record that included six regulation wins and one overtime win.

Team USA scraped through with the fourth and final quarterfinal spot in Group A, finishing the preliminary round 3-1-0-3.

Team Canada is a -450 favourite to win on the World Championship odds, with the puckline set at 2.5 and the total pegged at 6.5.

USA vs. Canada men’s hockey world championship betting odds

Although both teams will ice largely different rosters, Canada will have plenty of motivation after losing to the United States in overtime of the gold medal game at the 2026 Olympics. Notable Olympic players who will also play in this game include Macklin Celebrini for Canada and Matthew Tkachuk for the United States. Sidney Crosby captained Canada at the Olympics, but missed the semifinal and gold medal games with an injury.

While Canada has 25 more gold medals than Team USA at the World Championships, the United States are the defending champions. USA won gold last year for the first time in 92 years. Canada last won gold in 2023.

The only two undefeated teams in the tournament are Canada of Group B and Switzerland of Group A. However, because Switzerland won all their games in regulation, Canada has the second overall seed after the group stage and the Swiss are No. 1. With the semifinals re-seeded, Canada cannot face Switzerland until the medal round.

It’s the opposite story for the United States as they are the lowest remaining seed in the tournament. If Team USA wins on Thursday, their likeliest semifinal opponents are Switzerland, Finland or Norway.

The Canadians remain favoured to win gold on the World Championship futures board at +115. Team USA is +2000 to win the tournament, the third-longest odds of the eight remaining teams.

Team USA

With a spot in the quarterfinals on the line, the United States downed Austria 4-1 on Tuesday. The Americans went up early with two goals in the first seven minutes then led 4-0 after two periods. Connor Clifton, Ryan Ufko, Paul Cotter and Tkachuk had the goals for the United States. Devin Cooley turned aside 24 of 25 shots faced for his second win of the tournament.

Tommy Novak leads Team USA in scoring with eight points (1G, 7A), while Tkachuk is second with seven (4G, 3A). The U.S. has done most of their damage on the power play as they lead the tournament with a 35 per cent success rate. That has offset their 9.51 shooting percentage, which ranks third-last. Team USA will need to pepper Canada with shots to make up for their lack of finishing ability.

Team Canada

Canada was already assured of winning Group B before they faced Czechia on Tuesday and they still managed to close out their preliminary round on a high note. After trailing the Czechs 2-0 midway through the game, Celebrini scored twice to tie the game and John Tavares netted the game-winner. Celebrini’s effort puts him second in the tournament in both points (11) and goals (five).

Special teams could decide Canada’s quarterfinal matchup. Their power play has been surprisingly average with just three goals on 15 chances (20 per cent). However, Canada’s penalty kill has been elite, allowing only two goals on 18 opportunities (88.9 per cent success rate). Clearly that penalty kill battle will be key in shutting down a USA offence that relies almost solely on power play scoring.