NHL
Jordan Ramsay
December 30, 2024

2025 IIHF World Junior Championship: Canada vs. United States Odds, Prediction

Both teams have suffered surprise losses in the preliminary round, with Canada falling in a shootout against Latvia in a massive upset and the United States losing to Finland in overtime in a minor upset.

Canada is coming off a 3-0 win over Germany, while Team USA’s 4-3 loss to the Finns was their last outing.

This game is virtually a pick’em on the World Junior odds, with Canada sitting at -1 on the puckline, while the total is pegged at 6.5.

2025 IIHF World Junior Championship Betting Odds

Canada and the U.S. both enter the final game of the preliminary round with seven points and identical 2-0-0-1 records. That means the winner on Tuesday will earn top seed in the group and play the fourth place team in Group B, likely Switzerland or Kazakhstan. The loser will play the third place place team in Group B, which is almost certainly going to be Slovakia.

This will be the 13th New Year’s Eve clash between Canada and the United States, with the Canadians winning eight of those games. However, it was the U.S. who came out on top in the last New Year’s Eve bout, winning 3-1 in 2016. The Americans went on to beat Canada again five days later, 5-4 in a shootout, to claim gold.

Canada has the edge in the all-time series, winning 34 of 49 games while outscoring the U.S. 197-139 in that span. The teams have met five times in the gold medal game, with the Americans winning four, most recently in a 2-0 decision in 2021 in Edmonton. The last time the teams met overall, Canada routed the U.S. 6-2 in 2023.

Unsurprisingly, there’s been a shift on the World Junior futures board. Canada opened the tournament as a +125 favourite to win gold, while the Americans were second at +150. As of Monday, the United States are the favourites to win gold at +145, while Canada has dropped to +150.

If you’re looking for better gold value, you can head over to Group B. Sweden (+450) and Czechia (+2000) are both undefeated after three games and offer significantly better payouts than Canada or the United States.

Team Canada

There’s no doubt about it, Canada’s offence has been snake-bitten. After going 0-for-8 in an embarrassing shootout loss to Latvia, the Canadians didn’t exactly exude confidence with a 3-0 win against Germany. Oliver Bonk was the only goal scorer until Caden Price scored late in the third and Mathieu Cataford added an empty-netter. There’s hope the goals will come, however, as Canada leads the tournament with 134 shots.

And if you want more positivity, just look to Canada’s elite defensive structure and star goaltending. Through three games, Canada has yet to allow a five-on-five goal and they’ve clearly found a star in the making with Carter George, who has pitched shutouts in both his starts at the tournament. George made 31 saves against the Finns and 25 against Germany. At some point the goals will come for Canada and combining that with elite goaltending is a scary thought for the rest of the teams in the tournament.

Team USA

Team USA’s loss to Finland could prove costly as a win would have all but clinched the group. Carey Terrrance, Cole Hutson (younger brother of Montreal Canadiens defenceman Lane Hutson) and Brodie Ziemer scored in the loss, while Trey Augustine made 40 saves. Hutson (1G, 5A) and James Hagens (2G, 4A) lead the Americans with six points each, one back of the tournament lead.

This will be an interesting battle as the Americans’ elite offence gets its toughest test against Canada’s goaltending. The United States has consistently found the back of the net through three games, ranking third in the tournament in goals (18), second in shots (130) and third in shooting percentage (13.9).