Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds & Stats - March 07, 2026

Scoreboard	1	2	3	Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning 50-26-4-2	4	0	1	+4.5
Toronto Maple Leafs 32-36-10-4	1	0	1	-210

Date	Result	Competition
05/03/26	Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) 2 - 1	Atlantic
05/01/26	Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) 1 - 0	Atlantic
04/29/26	Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) 3 - 2	Atlantic
04/26/26	Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) 3 - 2	Atlantic
04/24/26	Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) 2 - 3	Atlantic
04/21/26	Montreal Canadiens MON ( 48-24-5-5 ) Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 ) 2 - 3	Atlantic
04/15/26	Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) Ottawa Senators OTT ( 44-27-10-1 ) 1 - 3	Atlantic
04/13/26	Dallas Stars DAL ( 50-20-8-4 ) Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) 6 - 5	Central
04/11/26	Florida Panthers FLA ( 40-38-2-2 ) Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) 6 - 2	Atlantic
04/09/26	Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) NY Islanders Islanders NYI ( 43-34-0-5 ) 3 - 5	Atlantic
04/08/26	Washington Capitals WAS ( 43-30-3-6 ) Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) 4 - 0	Metropolitan
04/04/26	Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 ) Los Angeles Kings LA ( 35-27-11-9 ) 6 - 7	Atlantic

Team	Puckline	Moneyline	Over / Under
Tampa Bay Lightning TB	-1.5 0	0	U+4.50
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR	+1.5 0	0	O+4.50

time	fav	line	total
Opening 6 Mar 6:11pm	TB		O +6.5 -105
Closing 8 Mar 2:23am	TB		O +5.5 -210

Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	130	Points	79	William Nylander Right Wing Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	43	+ / -	8	Chris Tanev Defense Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	231	Shots	227	Auston Matthews Center Tampa Bay
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Defense Toronto	112	Penalty Mins	95	Max Domi Center Tampa Bay
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	39	Wins	15	Joseph Woll Goaltender Tampa Bay
Dennis Hildeby Goaltender Tampa Bay	2.9	GAA	2.3	Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto

Jake Guentzel Left Wing Toronto	8	Points
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	6	+ / -
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	31	Shots	Did not qualify
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	13	Penalty Mins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	3	Wins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	2.2	GAA

team	win	loss	last 10	w/l streak	ats	money	home	away	total
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning	38	18	5-5-0	1L	29-30	790	19-10-0	19-8-2-2	26-25-8
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs	27	25	2-7-1	7L	24-36	-2016	16-10-5-2	11-15-3-1	33-20-7

date	home-away	ats	o/u	TOR:Shots	TOR:Goals	TOR:Assists	TB:Shots	TB:Goals	TB:Assists
03/07/2026	TOR 2 - TB 5	TB	Over 0	29	2	1	33	5	10
02/25/2026	TB 4 - TOR 2	TB	Under 6	34	2	4	36	4	8
12/08/2025	TOR 2 - TB 0	TOR	Under 6	25	2	2	29	0	0
04/09/2025	TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT)	TOR	Over 6	31	4	7	28	3	6
01/20/2025	TOR 5 - TB 3	TOR	Over 6.5	30	3	6	28	5	8
11/30/2024	TB 3 - TOR 5	TOR	Over 6	29	5	10	41	3	5
10/21/2024	TOR 5 - TB 2	TOR	Over 6.5	34	2	4	29	5	7
04/17/2024	TB 6 - TOR 4	TB	Over 7	38	4	7	32	6	11
04/03/2024	TOR 1 - TB 4	TB	Under 6.5	25	4	8	29	1	2
11/06/2023	TOR 6 - TB 5	TOR	Over 7	31	5	10	34	6	12
10/21/2023	TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT)	TOR	Under 7	52	4	7	31	3	6
04/29/2023	TB 1 - TOR 2 (OT)	TOR	Under 6.5	22	2	3	32	1	2
04/27/2023	TOR 2 - TB 4	TB	Under 6.5	38	4	8	30	2	4
04/24/2023	TB 4 - TOR 5 (OT)	TOR	Over 6.5	37	5	10	31	4	8
04/22/2023	TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT)	TOR	Over 6.5	27	4	7	39	3	6
04/20/2023	TOR 7 - TB 2	TOR	Over 6	22	2	4	37	7	12
04/18/2023	TOR 3 - TB 7	TB	Over 6	34	7	11	31	3	6
04/11/2023	TB 3 - TOR 4	TOR	Over 6.5	24	4	7	48	3	4
12/20/2022	TOR 4 - TB 1	TOR	Under 6	19	1	1	40	4	6
12/03/2022	TB 4 - TOR 3	TB	Over 6	39	3	3	33	4	7

date	score	ats	o/u	Shots	Goals	Assists
05/03/2026	TB 1 - MON 2	L	Under 5	9	2	4
05/01/2026	MON 0 - TB 1 (OT)	W	Under 5.5	33	1	2
04/29/2026	TB 2 - MON 3	L	Under 5.5	24	3	5
04/26/2026	MON 2 - TB 3	W	Under 6	20	3	6
04/24/2026	MON 3 - TB 2	L	Under 6	17	2	2
04/21/2026	TB 3 - MON 2	W	Under 6	27	2	4
04/19/2026	TB 3 - MON 4 (OT)	L	Over 6	19	4	8
04/15/2026	TB 2 - NYR 4	L	Under 6.5	21	4	8
04/13/2026	TB 4 - DET 3	W	Over 6.5	30	3	5
04/11/2026	BOS 1 - TB 2	W	Under 6	24	2	4

date	score	ats	o/u	Shots	Goals	Assists
04/15/2026	OTT 3 - TOR 1	L	Under 6.5	38	3	6
04/13/2026	TOR 5 - DAL 6	L	Over 6.5	27	5	8
04/11/2026	TOR 2 - FLA 6	L	Over 6.5	19	2	2
04/09/2026	NYI 5 - TOR 3	L	Over 6.5	44	5	8
04/08/2026	TOR 0 - WAS 4	L	Under 6.5	21	0	0
04/04/2026	LA 7 - TOR 6	L	Over 6	40	7	12
04/02/2026	SJ 4 - TOR 1	L	Under 6.5	25	4	8
03/30/2026	ANA 4 - TOR 5 (OT)	W	Over 7	32	4	8
03/28/2026	STL 5 - TOR 1	L	Under 6	38	5	9
03/25/2026	TOR 4 - NYR 3	W	Over 6	18	4	4

Tampa Bay Lightning TB Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

avg	rank	edge in	rank
2.1	7	Goals Per Game	1
2.3	2	Goals Against Per Game	1
28.0	9	Shots Per Game	1
22.3	1	Shots Against Per Game	1
7.7	13	Shooting %	1
10.3	7	Opponent Shooting %	1
5.71	2	Shot Differential Per Game	1
7.7	13	Scoring Efficiency Ratio	1
.900	4	Save %	1
.920	5	Opponent Save %	1
12.7	7	Penalty Minutes Per Game	1
0.71	6	Power Play Goals Per Game	1
0.71	8	Power Play Goals Against Per Game	1
17.2	9	Power Play %	1
80.8	10	Penalty Kill %	1
1.58	14	Blocks To Shots On Goal Ratio	1

offence

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.49	4
Shots	28.11	14
Power Play (%)	21	15
Faceoff (%)	47	29
Penalty Mins	1207	1

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.07	16
Shots	26.33	23
Power Play (%)	21	17
Faceoff (%)	54	3
Penalty Mins	748	12

defence

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.49	4
Shots	28.11	14
Power Play (%)	21	15
Faceoff (%)	47	29
Penalty Mins	1207	1

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

	Season stats	rank
Goals	3.07	16
Shots	26.33	23
Power Play (%)	21	17
Faceoff (%)	54	3
Penalty Mins	748	12

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Nick Paul (LW)	Ques Fri	Illness - 29 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Pontus Holmberg (RW)	Ques Sun	Upper Body - 22 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Charle-Edouard D'Astous (D)	Ques Fri	Undisclosed - 20 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Zemgus Girgensons (LW)	Ques Mon	Undisclosed - 11 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Darren Raddysh (D)	Ques Wed	Undisclosed - 11 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Brandon Hagel (LW)	Ques Sat	Lower Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Scott Sabourin (RW)	Ques Mon	Undisclosed - 01 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Brandon Hagel (LW)	Ques Tues	Undisclosed - 01 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Nikita Kucherov (RW)	Ques Tues	Illness - 29 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Victor Hedman (D)	Out indefinitely	Personal - 20 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Calle Jarnkrok (C)	Out Wed	Undisclosed - 15 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Dakota Joshua (C)	out for season	Upper Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Brandon Carlo (D)	out for season	Lower Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Anthony Stolarz (G)	out for season	Lower Body - 09 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)	Ques Wed	Lower Body - 03 / 04 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Morgan Rielly (D)	Ques Tues	Lower Body - 21 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Anthony Stolarz (G)	Ques Tues	Neck - 21 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)	Ques Tues	Personal - 15 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Auston Matthews (C)	out for season	Knee - 13 / 03 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details
Joseph Woll (G)	Ques Thurs	Illness - 19 / 02 / 26	0-0	0-0	Details

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

No posts found.

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

No posts found.

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

Over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater.

Over is 6-0 in Lightning last 6 Saturday games.

Lightning are 51-15 in their last 66 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.

Under is 9-3-2 in Lightning last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.

Over is 4-0-2 in Lightning last 6 games as a favorite.

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

Over is 5-2 in Maple Leafs last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Over is 35-17-5 in Maple Leafs last 57 Saturday games.

Maple Leafs are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Over is 16-7-1 in Maple Leafs last 24 games as a favorite.

Maple Leafs are 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.

Team	Win / Loss	ATS	OU
Buffalo Sabres BUF	50-23	47-34	42-33-6
Tampa Bay Lightning TB	50-26	45-33	42-32-4
Montreal Canadiens MON	48-24	47-34	42-33-6
Boston Bruins BOS	45-27	45-33	35-34-9
Ottawa Senators OTT	44-27	30-43	37-31-5
Detroit Red Wings DET	41-31	38-34	34-30-8
Florida Panthers FLA	40-38	38-34	34-30-8
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR	32-36	32-39	37-30-4

Tampa Bay Lightning

Pitchers

POS	Player

Hitters

POS	Player

Toronto Maple Leafs

Pitchers

POS	Player

Hitters

POS	Player

Game Statistics

Shots

15.2

6.9

Shooting %

Penalties

Penalty Minutes

Power Plays

Goals

Team	Last 5 Matches
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 50-26-4-2 )	L W L W L
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 32-36-10-4 )	L L L L L

Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	130	Points	79	William Nylander Right Wing Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	43	+ / -	8	Chris Tanev Defense Tampa Bay
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	231	Shots	227	Auston Matthews Center Tampa Bay
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Defense Toronto	112	Penalty Mins	95	Max Domi Center Tampa Bay
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	39	Wins	15	Joseph Woll Goaltender Tampa Bay
Dennis Hildeby Goaltender Tampa Bay	2.9	GAA	2.3	Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto

Jake Guentzel Left Wing Toronto	8	Points
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	6	+ / -
Nikita Kucherov Right Wing Toronto	31	Shots	Did not qualify
Brandon Hagel Left Wing Toronto	13	Penalty Mins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	3	Wins
Andrei Vasilevskiy Goaltender Toronto	2.2	GAA

nhl Standings Complete TB Standings

Game Preview

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, NHL Odds

Toronto has been lit up for 4.50 goals per game during its six-game overall slide, and has surrendered 4.71 goals per game while losing seven straight at home.

Team	Win / Loss	ATS	OU
Buffalo Sabres BUF	50-23	47-34	42-33-6
Tampa Bay Lightning TB	50-26	45-33	42-32-4
Montreal Canadiens MON	48-24	47-34	42-33-6
Boston Bruins BOS	45-27	45-33	35-34-9
Ottawa Senators OTT	44-27	30-43	37-31-5
Detroit Red Wings DET	41-31	38-34	34-30-8
Florida Panthers FLA	40-38	38-34	34-30-8
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR	32-36	32-39	37-30-4