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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds & Stats - March 07, 2026

Game Scheduled
Atlantic
Mar 7th, 7:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay
Lightning
L L L W W
Toronto
Maple Leafs
L L L W W
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Scoreboard Spread Moneyline O/U
Tampa Bay Lightning 38-17-2-2      
Toronto Maple Leafs 27-24-8-2      

Latest Encounters

Date Result Competition Stats Recap
03/03/26
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 38-17-2-2 )
Minnesota Wild MIN ( 36-16-7-3 )
1   -   5
 Atlantic
03/02/26
Philadelphia Flyers PHI ( 28-21-8-3 )
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 27-24-8-2 )
2   -   2
 Metropolitan
02/28/26
Buffalo Sabres BUF ( 36-19-6 )
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 38-17-2-2 )
6   -   2
 Atlantic
02/28/26
Ottawa Senators OTT ( 29-22-9 )
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 27-24-8-2 )
5   -   2
 Atlantic
02/26/26
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 38-17-2-2 )
Carolina Hurricanes CAR ( 38-16-3-3 )
4   -   5
 Atlantic
02/26/26
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 27-24-8-2 )
Florida Panthers FLA ( 30-28-2-1 )
1   -   5
 Atlantic
02/25/26
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 27-24-8-2 )
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 38-17-2-2 )
2   -   4
 Atlantic
02/05/26
Florida Panthers FLA ( 30-28-2-1 )
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 38-17-2-2 )
1   -   6
 Atlantic
02/03/26
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 27-24-8-2 )
Edmonton Oilers EDM ( 30-24-5-3 )
5   -   2
 Atlantic
02/03/26
Buffalo Sabres BUF ( 36-19-6 )
Tampa Bay Lightning TB ( 38-17-2-2 )
3   -   4
 Atlantic
02/02/26
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR ( 27-24-8-2 )
Calgary Flames CAL ( 24-29-4-3 )
4   -   2
 Atlantic

Line History

Matchup Details

team win loss last 10 w/l streak ats money home away total
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
37 14 6-4-0 3L 27-28 780 18-9-0 19-5-2-2 24-25-6
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
27 21 3-6-0-1 4L 24-32 -1381 16-9-5-1 11-12-3 32-19-5

Recent Meetings

date home-away ats o/u TOR:Shots TOR:Goals TOR:Assists TB:Shots TB:Goals TB:Assists
02/25/2026 TB 4 - TOR 2 TB Under 6 34 2 4 36 4 8
12/08/2025 TOR 2 - TB 0 TOR Under 6 25 2 2 29 0 0
04/09/2025 TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT) TOR Over 6 31 4 7 28 3 6
01/20/2025 TOR 5 - TB 3 TOR Over 6.5 30 3 6 28 5 8
11/30/2024 TB 3 - TOR 5 TOR Over 6 29 5 10 41 3 5
10/21/2024 TOR 5 - TB 2 TOR Over 6.5 34 2 4 29 5 7
04/17/2024 TB 6 - TOR 4 TB Over 7 38 4 7 32 6 11
04/03/2024 TOR 1 - TB 4 TB Under 6.5 25 4 8 29 1 2
11/06/2023 TOR 6 - TB 5 TOR Over 7 31 5 10 34 6 12
10/21/2023 TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT) TOR Under 7 52 4 7 31 3 6
04/29/2023 TB 1 - TOR 2 (OT) TOR Under 6.5 22 2 3 32 1 2
04/27/2023 TOR 2 - TB 4 TB Under 6.5 38 4 8 30 2 4
04/24/2023 TB 4 - TOR 5 (OT) TOR Over 6.5 37 5 10 31 4 8
04/22/2023 TB 3 - TOR 4 (OT) TOR Over 6.5 27 4 7 39 3 6
04/20/2023 TOR 7 - TB 2 TOR Over 6 22 2 4 37 7 12
04/18/2023 TOR 3 - TB 7 TB Over 6 34 7 11 31 3 6
04/11/2023 TB 3 - TOR 4 TOR Over 6.5 24 4 7 48 3 4
12/20/2022 TOR 4 - TB 1 TOR Under 6 19 1 1 40 4 6
12/03/2022 TB 4 - TOR 3 TB Over 6 39 3 3 33 4 7
05/14/2022 TOR 1 - TB 2 TB Under 6.5 25 2 2 31 1 2
date score ats o/u Shots Goals Assists
03/03/2026 MIN 5 - TB 1 L Under 6 26 1 2
02/28/2026 TB 2 - BUF 6 L Over 6.5 35 6 9
02/26/2026 CAR 5 - TB 4 L Over 6 28 4 8
02/25/2026 TB 4 - TOR 2 W Under 6 34 2 4
02/05/2026 TB 6 - FLA 1 W Over 5.5 34 1 2
02/03/2026 TB 4 - BUF 3 W Over 6 26 3 4
02/01/2026 TB 5 - BOS 5 L Over 6 34 5 8
01/29/2026 TB 4 - WIN 1 W Under 5.5 23 1 2
01/26/2026 TB 2 - UTAH 0 W Under 6 28 0 0
01/24/2026 CLB 8 - TB 5 L Over 6.5 30 5 8
date score ats o/u Shots Goals Assists
03/02/2026 TOR 2 - PHI 2 L Under 6 31 2 3
02/28/2026 TOR 2 - OTT 5 L Over 6.5 23 2 4
02/26/2026 FLA 5 - TOR 1 L Under 6 37 5 5
02/25/2026 TB 4 - TOR 2 L Under 6 36 4 8
02/03/2026 EDM 2 - TOR 5 W Over 6.5 36 2 4
02/02/2026 CAL 2 - TOR 4 W Under 6 30 2 4
01/31/2026 VAN 2 - TOR 2 L Over 0 30 2 4
01/29/2026 SEA 5 - TOR 2 L Over 6 22 5 8
01/27/2026 TOR 4 - BUF 7 L Over 6 23 4 8
01/25/2026 TOR 1 - COL 4 L Under 6.5 33 1 2

Matchup Edge - Scoring Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning TB
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
avg rank edge in rank avg
3.5 2 Goals Per Game 5 3.2
2.6 2 Goals Against Per Game 10 3.4
28.4 12 Shots Per Game 16 27.5
26.5 8 Shots Against Per Game 28 31.8
12.3 3 Shooting % 6 11.6
10.0 5 Opponent Shooting % 13 10.8
1.92 8 Shot Differential Per Game 29 -4.36
12.3 3 Scoring Efficiency Ratio 6 11.6
.900 2 Save % 3 .890
.880 2 Opponent Save % 2 .880
14.5 1 Penalty Minutes Per Game 19 7.4
0.68 9 Power Play Goals Per Game 22 0.46
0.53 7 Power Play Goals Against Per Game 1 0.43
21.9 13 Power Play % 17 19.6
83.1 4 Penalty Kill % 4 83.1
2.09 6 Blocks To Shots On Goal Ratio 6 2.09

Odds Analysis

Team Rankings

offence
Tampa Bay Lightning TB
Season stats rank
Goals 3.49 3
Shots 28.41 15
Power Play (%) 22 11
Faceoff (%) 47 28
Penalty Mins 858 1
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Season stats rank
Goals 3.18 14
Shots 27.46 19
Power Play (%) 20 16
Faceoff (%) 56 1
Penalty Mins 453 28
defence
Tampa Bay Lightning TB
Season stats rank
Goals 3.49 3
Shots 28.41 15
Power Play (%) 22 11
Faceoff (%) 47 28
Penalty Mins 858 1
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Season stats rank
Goals 3.18 14
Shots 27.46 19
Power Play (%) 20 16
Faceoff (%) 56 1
Penalty Mins 453 28

Injuries

Tampa Bay Lightning TB
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

Tampa Bay vs. Toronto Betting News

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

No posts found.
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

No posts found.

Tampa Bay Vs Toronto Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Lightning TB

Over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater.

Over is 5-0 in Lightning last 5 Saturday games.

Lightning are 51-15 in their last 66 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.

Under is 9-3-1 in Lightning last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.

Lightning are 16-5 in their last 21 road games.

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR

Over is 5-2 in Maple Leafs last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Over is 24-9-2 in Maple Leafs last 35 Saturday games.

Over is 6-2-1 in Maple Leafs last 9 games as a favorite.

Maple Leafs are 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.

Under is 6-2-1 in Maple Leafs last 9 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater.

Atlantic Standings

Line Up - Last Game

Tampa Bay Lightning
Pitchers
POS Player
Hitters
POS Player
Toronto Maple Leafs
Pitchers
POS Player
Hitters
POS Player