Why the AFC is Impossible to Predict So Far

It’s been argued that the AFC is the more potent of the two National Football League conferences. While the NFC has been graced with the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and, to a lesser degree the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, only one of those clubs has gone out and won a Super Bowl (Rams in 2021).

But with the AFC laden with so much talent, especially this season, it’s increasingly difficult to figure out what to make of the top AFC dogs on a week-to-week basis. Here’s what’s going on.

Kansas City Chiefs Win but Look Sluggish

The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 in an AFC West division that’s as relatively weak as many predicted it would be, so all’s well, correct? Sort of, but not quite. With all the club’s firepower power courtesy of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and company, one would think that KC should be humming as usual. It almost looks that way.

Andy Reid’s group is ninth in scoring (25.3 points per match), ninth in rushing yards per game (137.0), sixth in passing yards (256.0) per tilt, and third in total yards (393.0). All solid stats, except that they’re inflated by the 41-10 obliteration of the Chicago Bears in Week 3. In Week 1 against the Lions, they lost and only scored 20 points, followed that up by putting up 17 versus the Jaguars, and most recently eked out a 23-20 win against the New York Jets on Sunday night in Week 4. That was predicted to be a wipe-out, but only a fourth quarter field goal separated the two squads. There’s also the simple matter that with a month’s worth of football in the books, the Chiefs lost to the best of their four opponents.

Cincinnati Bengals Acting like the Bungles

This one is a real shocker. Or perhaps not. It would be foolhardy to simply expect every single squad that has a good season or two (two in Cincy’s case) to automatically repeat that relative success with eyes closed. It’s not that easy in the NFL, when injuries, free agency, and the pressure of climbing back up the mountain is a lot to ask of any team.

Speaking of injuries, one starts to wonder how badly Joe Burrow’s summertime ailments are affecting the club. Did anyone have Burrow in 27th league-wide in total passing yards (728) after four weeks on their bingo card?

Collectively the Bengals have tallied the least number of yards per game (236.0) in the NFL and the second-fewest points per tilt (12.3). When they netted only a field goal against Cleveland in Week 1, it was easy to chalk it up to a good Browns defence, a rainy day, and curtailed offseason practice. But the Bengals haven’t played the Browns four times, nor has it rained every Sunday since. Tennessee’s defence is not known as a shutdown unit, yet they pummeled the Bengals in Week 4, paving the way for a 27-3 win.

It’s not even that WR Ja’Marr Chase’s 284 total yards so far are bad, but he’s not a difference-maker. Case in point, that number only puts him at 16^th in the NFL. Nobody actually believes he’s the 16^th-best wide receiver.

Hold the Horses on the Dolphins

This one was so incredibly tempting, so marvellously juicy. There were no two ways about it. In the 2022 campaign, when Mike McDaniel was coaching a healthy and sprite Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins season was going swimmingly. Then the QB suffered two highly unfortunate head injuries which basically derailed the offence in significant respects.

But things would revert to normal in 2023 considering the key players like Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle were back and healthy, plus new RB De’Von Achane. A thrilling victory over the Chargers was followed by a solid road win versus the Patriots. Then came the crème de la crème performance over a floundering Denver Broncos squad. A 70-20 final score was certainly an outlier if there ever was one, but it also served as an indicator of how dangerous Miami could be.

And then Week 4 happened.

It wasn’t just a loss. It was a defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, one of the clubs they should overcome if they want to demonstrate that they’re “all that.” Furthermore, it was a 48-20 walloping. Lastly, although the match was in Buffalo, it was a beautiful, sunny, crisp October day, not zero degrees Celsius in December or January. They simply got handed a dose of harsh reality. The Dolphins are a good football team, but it’s early to organize a parade for their majestic style.

What to Make of the Cleveland Browns

Heading into the season, the elephant in the room that is the AFC was the Cleveland Browns. Through four weeks, they still are the elephant in the room. At 2-2, with a couple of brilliant wins, a tough loss, and a buzz sawing, it’s unclear what fans, pundits, and betters are supposed to make of them.

There was plenty of hype surrounding Deshaun Watson. Could he revert to the form he sported during his Houston Texans days? That would be incredible given the receiver corps he gets to play with, led by Amari Cooper.

Then something funny happened. The offence is okay. It’s mostly functional, but nothing special. In fact, the passing attack is arguably what’s holding it back, as it racks up merely 172 yards a week to the rushing game’s stellar 143 (yes, Watson was out against Baltimore in Week 4, fair enough). But the defence, led by Myles Garrett is amazing. First in total yards conceded, passing yards per game against, and fifth in both rushing yards and points against.

Is this the Buffalo Bills’ Year?

With so much ink spilled about the Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, Browns, Jets (until a minute into their Week 1 game), the Buffalo Bills got lost in the shuffle a little bit. People know they’re a good football team. They have been for four years by now. But the AFC Championship Game has been Cincy vs. KC two years in a row, Cincy took out Buffalo last year in the playoffs, the Jets had upgraded, and the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson are always a potential threat.

But looks who is 3-1 and would have been 4-0 were it not for a legendary performance by the Jets defence in Week 1 and a remarkable overtime punt returned for a TD. Before anyone argues that one of Buffalo’s wins was a thumping of the Commanders, consider that Washington is 2-2 and pushed the Philadelphia Eagles in extremis in Week 4. Washington may be a flawed team, but it’s playing its tails off.

It’s the 48-20 demolition of the Miami Dolphins that reminds us to not forget about the Bills. Granted, they still need to win a Super Bowl. Heck, they still need to play a Super Bowl, something they have to do in the Sean McDermott-Josh Allen era. But after all the podcasts, NFL shows and articles about how the Bills might take a step back in 2023, they’re the ones who resemble their regular selves, which is a terrific ball club.

What will happen in the 14 remaining weeks of regular season football in the AFC? As if we know, but we’ll make predictions weekly anyway and when the results come in cry “Argh! I should have known!”