Oklahoma vs. Texas: NCAAF Week 6 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Oct 03, 2023

The last-ever regular-season meeting between No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 3 Texas as Big 12 rivals takes place Saturday from the Red River Showdown’s annual neutral site of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

The Horns as 6.5-point favourites to win on the college football odds.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The latest wave of conference realignment, which has likely led to the dissolution of the Pac-12, started in 2021 when Oklahoma and Texas, the two flagship football programs of the Big 12, decided to leave for the SEC. Originally, they were going to leave after the 2024 season but worked out a financial deal with the Big 12 – which has reloaded via realignment itself – to leave after this year. All 14 current SEC members will face either Oklahoma or Texas in 2024 as the conference moves to 16 members. Presumably, OU and UT will still play every year and they will in 2024.

It is very possible if not likely these two play again in the Big 12 title game, although the loser obviously would have tougher road there, which would be a real kick in the teeth to the conference. Texas is the -120 Big 12 favourite and Oklahoma +200.

Last year, Texas crushed OU 49-0. It was the Sooners’ most lopsided shutout loss ever in the first meeting between the Red River rivals since 1998 with neither ranked. It was the highest-scoring game for Texas in the 118-game series that dates to 1900. Oklahoma had won the previous four in the series. UT leads all-time 63-50-5. The game has been played inside the Cotton Bowl every year since 1937.

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners look like a vastly improved team in Year 2 under head coach Brent Venables. They haven’t played a ranked opponent yet, but SMU, Cincinnati and Iowa State aren’t pushovers. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a Heisman candidate (+2000) as the former Central Florida transfer has completed 75.2 per cent of his passes for 1,593 yards, 15 TDs and only two picks. He ranks fourth nationally in passing TDs and points responsible for per game (22.8), fifth in completion percentage and sixth in pass efficiency rating (189.4). Oklahoma leads the Big 12 in scoring offence (47.4) and scoring defence (10.8 ppg). Air Force is the only other FBS team to lead its conference in both. This marks the first season since 2011 in which both schools are unbeaten when they play. OU has won six of its last seven games against Texas and 12 of its last 16 when both teams are ranked in the AP poll.

Texas Longhorns

Texas is 5-0 for the first time since 2009 and at No. 3 is at its highest ranking when facing Oklahoma since also No. 3 in 2009. The Horns won that year and went on to play in the BCS Championship Game, losing to Alabama. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is +900 to win the Heisman Trophy, which no QB at Texas has ever done, and he already has a spectacular win on his resume with an upset at Alabama. Ewers has a rushing TD in three straight games, first Texas QB to do so since Sam Ehlinger in 2018. Texas has five straight games scoring at least 30 points, its longest such streak since a six-game run in 2019-20. The Horns rank No. 2 to Oklahoma in scoring defence in the Big 12 at 12.8 ppg. The higher-ranked team in the AP Top 25 has won 19 of the last 30 matchups in the series when at least one is ranked. The team that wins the turnover battle between Texas and OU is 14-7 since 2000.

Score Prediction

Texas 30, Oklahoma 27