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Edgar Chaput
Why C.J. Stroud Leads the Odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
At the time of writing, on the cusp of Thursday Night Football Week 6 in the NFL, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud holds the best odds at earning the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year at +110.
Not only is his placement at the top of the pecking order warranted but there are a bunch of reasons why that can hold until the end of the season, thus solidifying his status as the National Football League’s best offensive first-year pro. Find out why below.
While we’re at it, check out these NFL odds for some game action and the Rookie of the Year odds just below.
C.J. Stroud: The Best Rookie QB So far
As is expected, all eyes are typically on the number one overall draft pick when that player suits up for the first time. This year, that meant Carolina Panthers gunslinger Bryce Young.
In the young man’s defence, the Panthers are a poor operation. They were last year (hence their ability to pick high) and still are this season through five weeks. Winless (0-5), they have the fourth-worst point differential in the NFL (-53). It was always foolhardy to anticipate greatness from the outset, but so far Young hasn’t done much to get the fanbase excited. He’s 30th in yards passing, 22nd in completion percentage, and 33rd in average yards per pass.
Hold on just a second. The Houston Texans, Stroud’s club, were pretty bad too last year!
In contrast, Stroud is third in yards passing, 28th in completion percentage, and fifth in average yards per pass. Yes, that completion percentage is worse than Young’s, fair enough. But if he’s passing for more yards overall and per completion, then he’s getting the job done a lot more. His team has won two games to Young’s zero. It was almost three victories if not for too much time left on the clock in Week 5 for the Falcons to march down the field and kick a game-winning field goal. The Houston drive that led to the late game-leading TD was awesome, however.
Who is Stroud throwing the ball to? Nico Collins, a third-year WR who has only played on moribund Texans squads, Tank Dell, a rookie, Robert Woods, a good receiver who lost a couple of seasons due to injuries and poor performances, and TE Dalton Schultz, whom the Cowboys felt they were better off without. That’s not what anyone would describe as a winning supporting cast. Then again, we may all be proven wrong.
By the way, he’s thrown seven touchdown passes and hasn’t tossed a pick yet. Some will surely come, but to be spotless in that statistical category as a rookie after five games is excellent.
What’s more, Houston has a first-year, defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans. The Panthers believe they have their man in offensive-minded veteran Frank Reich.
Why isn’t Indianapolis Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson in the mix? It’s not because of his performances on the field – which have been admirable – but rather his unfortunate injuries. Case in point, he’s currently on IR.
Stiff Competition: Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua
There is a lot of football left to be played, but suffice it to say that Stroud has some stiff competition for the award. Three names in particular stand out as we enter the sixth week of NFL action. None are quarterbacks, which makes for a refreshing change.
At the top of the list (or second, given he’s behind Stroud) is Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua at +350. If it’s tough for first-year QBs to get a handle on the game, imagine what it must be like for pass catchers, who don’t even touch the ball on most plays. That hasn’t stopped Nacua from ranking second in the NFL in yards caught. Not second among rookies. Second overall! It gets better. It outright leads the NFL with 46 receptions and is third in yards per tilt. The kid is great, but as a WR, his impact on the game can only be so much, and the Rams have still faltered this year. Also, with Cooper Kupp back from injury, it will be interesting to see how involved Nacua is the rest of the way.
Then comes Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson at +500. A solid rookie campaign from Tyler Allgeier in 2022 didn’t stop the organization from selecting another RB, and the hype surrounding Robinson was palpable. He’s lived up to the billing, placing eighth so far in total yards. He also passes the informal eye test. If he looks good and is racking up a lot of yards, what’s the issue? He hasn’t scored a touchdown yet and, to bring it back to Allgeier, head coach Arthur Smith believes his running back room operates by committee. The second-year ball carrier is getting a lot of touches, which has resulted in Robinson only tallying 72 yards per game so far. Not bad by any definition, but not a number that would win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
A player who is putting up great numbers is Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane, yet he lags far behind at +2500. Why? Well, there could be several reasons for this. First and foremost, his statistics are out of this world. Who averages 12.1 yards per carry on 38 touches? That’s outrageous. It’s also why Achane doesn’t have higher odds. It’s too crazy and he’ll surely slow down. In fact, he’ll be stuck in neutral for at least four weeks since he’s on IR. Raheem Mostert is also a critical part of that offence, as is the popular WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
C.J. Stroud Leads the Pack
The big thing here isn’t just the stats – which are very good – but his presence and the intangibles. After a mediocre first start at the Baltimore Ravens, there hasn’t been a game where Stroud has looked completely outmatched and lost. The Texans are 2-3, meaning there is work to be done. Technically they aren’t even a winning football team. But they look good and even in cases where they lose the match, Stroud has given fans reason to believe that they could have won.
Nacua, Robinson, and Achane – the latter by being on a winning team – don’t bring that element. When the Rams and Falcons lose, they resemble the second-best team on the field. That hasn’t quite been the case with the Texans.
It will be a lot of fun to see how C.J. Stroud develops over the 12 remaining regular season contests, but so far it’s completely understandable why he has the best odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
