Vikings vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 13 Odds, Prediction

David Bastl | Updated Nov 28, 2018

The New England Patriots at home are a perfect 5-0 this season, averaging 35.4 points per game at Foxborough.

Minnesota
8-7
AT
December 02, 2018, 4:25 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +6 -110
Moneyline +210
Over / Under o +49.5

39%

Betting Action

61%

Pointspread -6 -110
Moneyline -260
Over / Under u +49.5

39%

Betting Action

61%

Both the Patriots and Vikings have their sights set on post season appearances and long playoff runs. These two teams match-up well offensively, both ranked top 10 in the league. The Vikings have the edge defensively, but can they do it on the road in a place not many teams walk out of with a win?

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This non-conference match-up doesn’t have a lot history, but there are some important numbers to watch when evaluating this game. First off, the Patriots at home are a perfect 5-0 this season, averaging 35.4 points per game at Foxborough. Their overall season average is 27.9, which is good enough for seventh (tied). The Saints hold down the number one position averaging 37.2 points per game. Dating back to the 2016 season, the Patriots are very good in December, going 8-1 against the spread in that month. The Vikings are 2-2-1 on the road this season, with losses at Chicago and Los Angeles (Rams) both division leaders. They are also 1-6 ATS versus teams that have a winning record.  Of note, the last time Minnesota knocked off New England was September 17, 2000 (21-13).

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are coming off a massive win on Sunday night football for two reasons. One, they were able to keep pace with the Chicago Bears, and now find themselves a game and a half back of the division leader. And two, basically bury the Green Bay Packers, who barring a miracle, will not be part of the NFL’s post season.

Receiver Adam Thielen snapped a mild two game receiving slump with an eight catch night for 125 yards and a touchdown. In the previous two games Thielen was invisible (by his standards) with 11 catches for 88 yards. In his first eight games of the season, Thielen put together eight consecutive 100+ yard receiving games. His numbers are Pro-bowl worthy as he’s currently ranked second in receiving yards with 1138, behind the great Julio Jones.

As good as the team’s receiving core has been with Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph the same cannot be said about the running attack, currently ranked 30th in the league, averaging 85.3 yards a game as a team.

One match-up to watch on Sunday will be the Vikings pass defence, which is ranked fifth overall (221.1 yards per game) versus Tom Brady’s pass offence, which is ranked 11th in the league (270.5). More will be expected from the off-injured Dalvin Cook and the struggling Latavius Murray.

New England Patriots

A bye week proved to be very good for the Patriots, as everything seemed to click the Patriot way for New England this past weekend. Quarterback Tom Brady became the NFL’s career leader in total yards passing (regular season and post-season) in the Pats 27-13 win over the Jets.

Sony Michel (21 carries for 133 yards) and James White (nine carries for 73) combined for 206 yards along the ground, in one of the team’s best running attacks of the season.

Playing in his first game since October 29, Tight End Rob Gronkowski looked happy and healthy, and that’s great news for the Patriots. Gronk played 69 of a possible 70 offensive snaps against the Jets, hauling in three catches on seven targets for 56 yards and a touchdown (his first major since week one).

The Patriots have the 22nd ranked defence in the NFL (377.5 yard average) and will have the huge responsibility of trying to stop a Vikings offence that is seventh in the league in passing (283.2 yards per game) led my Kirk Couisins.

Vikings vs. Patriots Prediction

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