NFL Week 1 Best Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl rematch kicks off 2026 season
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off with quite a bang Wednesday night from Seattle in rematch of Super Bowl 60, which was won easily by the Seahawks over the Patriots. It’s the first Kickoff Game season opener on a Wednesday since 2012.
Let’s break down all of Week 1 with ATS picks on the NFL odds. Games Sunday unless noted.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, Wednesday
Seattle dominated New England, 29-13, in the Feb. 8 Super Bowl 60 from outside San Francisco. It will mark the fifth time in the Kickoff Game for the Patriots all-time, and they are 3-1 in the previous four. Seattle’s previous appearance was a home win in 2014 also as the defending Super Bowl champion against Green Bay. The Seahawks did lose one major piece of last year’s club in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. He’s now the head coach of the Raiders.
Pick ATS: Seattle alt -3
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday
The reason this year’s Kickoff Game isn’t being played on Thursday night in the USA like usual is because this NFC West matchup kicks off at 8:35 p.m. ET Thursday from Melbourne, Australia. The league’s first-ever regular-season game Down Under will be played at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday morning local time. The teams split last season, each winning at home. That’s Los Angeles for this. Both clubs have some injury questions.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles alt -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup of former Heisman-winning quarterbacks and ex-No. 1 overall picks in Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield (although he wasn’t picked first by the Bucs) and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow. Both head coaches in Todd Bowles and Zac Taylor enter on hot seats after losing marks in 2025. The Bengals could be Super Bowl-calibre if they can keep Burrow healthy but really haven’t.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati alt -3
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
There are more than a few people out there who think this is the year the Lions reach their first Super Bowl, the only NFC team yet to do so. This despite the club regressing last year 9-8 and just missing the playoffs. But Detroit still might have more offensive talent than any other NFL club. The Saints were a surprise last year under rookie QB Tyler Shough and could steal the NFC South this year. But star tailback Alvin Kamara is in doubt for Week 1 injured.
Pick ATS: Detroit
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Certainly one of the potentially uglier Week 1 games after the clubs each finished 3-14 in 2025. At least the Titans think they have their QB of the future in second-year Cam Ward. He had his typical rookie struggles a season ago. The Titans definitely upgraded at head coach in the offseason in ironically hiring former Jets head coach Robert Saleh. New York will be starting ancient Geno Smith at QB until the front office wants a look at fourth-round rookie Cade Klubnik. Expect New York to be picking a quarterback very high in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Pick ATS: Tennessee
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
This might be the last real shot at Super Bowl glory for the Ravens under superstar QB Lamar Jackson because the team sure seemed to take a major step back last year by finishing 8-9 and missing the playoffs following three straight double-digit winning seasons. Head coach John Harbaugh left for the New York Giants and was replaced by Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Colts were one of the NFL’s surprise teams the first third or so of last season but then QB Daniel Jones was lost to injury and it all went south. He’s ready.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s allegedly the last season opener for Steelers future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who did sneak the team into the 2025 postseason but then played horribly in a loss to Houston. The 42-year-old pondered retirement again, but Pittsburgh hiring Rodgers’ former Green Bay head coach in Mike McCarthy was likely the last push to get Rodgers to return for one more year. The Falcons planned to have a QB competition this summer between free-agent addition Tua Tagovailoa former Top-10 pick Michael Penix Jr., but Penix wasn’t all that healthy so Tua starts.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh alt -3
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Chicago was very good last year under new head coach Ben Johnson but also incredibly fortunate with so many comeback wins, that it’s frankly not sustainable. Thus, a lot of “experts” are expecting a small step back in 2026 even if QB Caleb Williams is rising. Is this the year the Bears finally have a 4,000-yard passer? Williams came up just short last year. The only reason Chicago got Williams atop the 2024 draft? Because it traded the top pick in the 2023 draft to Carolina so it could take QB Bryce Young. He was better last year but still hasn’t lived up to the hype.
Pick ATS: Carolina alt +3
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
New Cleveland head coach Todd Monken shockingly named veteran Deshaun Watson as his Week 1 starting QB over second-year Shedeur Sanders. Watson has been the biggest anchor on the Browns roster in history and won’t be back next year, so why not see what Sanders can keep doing? Cleveland is going to be quite bad again. From Week 11-18 last year, no team was more dominant than Jacksonville as it captured the AFC South, but the Jags were knocked off in the playoff opener by Buffalo. Second-year Jags coach Liam Coen is one of the best offensive play-callers out there.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Could be an AFC playoff preview with both making it last year. That’s three straight Divisional Round exits for the Texans, and there are starting to be some questions about QB CJ Stroud as the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year has mostly regressed since then and could not stop turning the ball over in last season’s playoffs. The Bills fired highly successful head coach Sean McDermott after coming up short of the Super Bowl yet again and replaced him with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Pick ATS: Houston
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders took reigning Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza of Indiana at No. 1 overall in the draft, but in a modern-day rarity will not hand him the opening job. Instead, it goes to free-agent addition and veteran Kirk Cousins under new head coach Klint Kubiak. Surprising, although Mendoza did look shaky in the preseason. The Dolphins are probably the AFC’s worst team this season as they rebuild under new free-agent QB Malik Willis
Pick ATS: Las Vegas alt -3
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay is without two very key Pro Bowl players for this always entertaining NFC North showdown in running back Josh Jacobs and pass-rusher Micah Parsons. Jacobs is dealing with an off-the-field legal issue, while Parsons opened on the PUP list due to a serious injury suffered last season and won’t be ready before Week 5. Just missing those two is enough to back the Vikings in my mind even as they debut a new quarterback in former Cardinals No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
What to expect from the Commanders? They were one of the NFL’s biggest stories in 2024 behind QB and Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. But he was limited to seven games last year, didn’t look nearly as good and the team cratered. Daniels is healthy now. The Eagles certainly could win their second Super Bowl in three seasons but didn’t get better trading former Pro Bowl wideout AJ Brown to New England in the offseason. The NFC East rivals split in 2025.
Pick ATS: Washington
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
The Cardinals dumped former No. 1 overall pick and QB Kyler Murray in the offseason, eating a ton of salary-cap space, and will go with veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett under centre. The team has a top Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate this season in running back and No. 3 overall pick Jeremiah Love, but he might miss the opener injured. The Chargers have gone 11-6 and lost in the Wild-Card Round in both seasons under coach Jim Harbaugh. Could be good enough to win the AFC if all breaks right.
Pick ATS: Arizona alt +10
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sunday night game – because of course the NFL would put the mega-popular Cowboys and the USA’s biggest media market in that window. While New York was only 4-13 last year, rookie QB Jaxson Dart showed signs of absolute superstardom. Excellent young wideout Malik Nabers, who had a huge rookie year himself in 2024, was limited to four games last year due to serious injury and is a race for Sunday. The Cowboys were very good offensively last season but usually couldn’t stop anyone. The NFC East rivals split, each winning at home.
Pick ATS: New York alt +3
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday
The balance of power shifted in the AFC West last year with rising Denver winning the division and usual AFC superpower Kansas City missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, way before Patrick Mahomes arrived. He was limited to 14 games due to pretty serious injury but is fully expected to go Monday. Denver might have won the AFC if young QB Bo Nix wasn’t injured in the Divisional Round win over Buffalo and missed the close OT loss in the conference title game to New England. Nix is ready. The Broncos were 2-0 in the season series.
Pick ATS: Denver alt +3