Houston’s coming off an excruciating 32-27 home loss to Tennessee. The loss dropped the Texans to 7-5, and while they still lead their division this is a Texans team that’s 2-4 over the last six weeks and as of now limping into the NFL post-season.

The 2-9 Jaguars have had 14 days to sulk in and then move on from a 52-6 defeat at Detroit. No firings or personnel changes have come in Jacksonville since, but all signs point to Trevor Lawrence making his return from a shoulder injury the past three weeks.

Kickoff at EverBank Stadium gets going at 1 p.m. EST on Sunday, with the Texans entering as -4 favourites on the spread. Jacksonville is +180 on the moneyline, and the total is at 43.5 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Houston enters the sunshine state having won five straight games at Jacksonville. Overall, the Texans are 11-2 in their last 13 meetings with the Jaguars. Aside from last week’s debacle, Houston’s done well inside the AFC South division too by winning six of their last seven divisional contests. 

Jacksonville has scored 13 points combined in their last two games but have seen six of their last seven overall go over the total. The Jaguars are third-worst in the NFL with 28.7 points allowed per game which spells good news for Houston, the 12th-highest scoring offence in the NFL. Houston won the first meeting this season between these teams back in Week 4 by a score of 24-20, a game in which C.J. Stroud passed for 345 yards.

Houston Texans

The disappointment of the Houston Texans in 2024 continues. Maybe the standard that quarterback C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans set in their first seasons in Houston were a little too unrealistic, but the Texans reached a low last week in their 32-27 home loss to Tennessee. Stroud turned the ball over twice, as well stepping out of the back of the end zone for a game-ending safety.

Joe Mixon and the Texans run game had another abysmal showing as Mixon carried the ball 14 times for 22 yards. Mixon’s either gone above 100 rushing yards (six times), or failed to reach 50 (three times) this season. The one constant is Nico Collins — the lone receiver in the NFL averaging over 100 receiving yards a game — who racked up 92 yards last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Mac Jones experience hasn’t worked in Jacksonville either, which is why Trevor Lawrence can’t return under centre soon enough. In Jones’ two starts, the Jaguars put up a combined 313 yards and scored 13 combined points. Lawrence got the majority of the first-team reps during Wednesday’s practice, which head coach Doug Pederson called an “encouraging sign” for Lawrence to play this weekend.

Jacksonville got some more positive news in regards to injuries as running back Tank Bigsby was a full participant after dealing with an ankle injury the last two weeks. Bigsby leads Jacksonville with 519 rushing yards, joining leading receiver Brian Thomas Jr. as new, exciting weapons for the Jags offence. Now if only the Jags defence can hold the opposition to under 50 points…

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Texans vs. Jaguars?