Texans vs. Cowboys Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
Houston is a 7.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
With Dallas at 3-6 after winning 12 games and reaching the playoffs each of the previous three seasons, it’s now simply assumed that coach Mike McCarthy will not be back in 2025 — but apparently owner/general manager Jerry Jones has no interest in doing it during the season. Jones mentioned after Sunday’s blowout home loss to Philadelphia when peppered by the press about McCarthy’s future that he has fired coaches in-season before and regretted it every time. Let the Bill Belichick to Dallas rumours in 2025 start now.
It might not be the worst thing for the Cowboys to lose as much as possible the rest of the way and reboot with a high draft pick. After all, starting quarterback Dak Prescott is not expected back this season due to a hamstring injury. A decision on likely season-ending surgery should come this week. He would need about four months to recover.
Houston was the NFL’s biggest surprise last season in winning the AFC South and almost surely will repeat there as it holds a two-game lead over second-place Indianapolis that is really a three-game lead thanks to the Texans’ season sweep of the Colts.
Just six meetings between these franchises with Dallas leading 4-2. It won the last matchup 27-23 at home in December 2022. Ezekiel Elliott’s 2-yard run with 41 seconds left was the winner.
Houston Texans
The Texans played a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday night in Week 10 and appeared to have the NFC-best Detroit Lions beaten with a 23-7 halftime lead at home, but Detroit stormed back for a stunning 26-23 victory on a walk-off 52-yard field goal despite QB Jared Goff throwing five interceptions – a franchise-record for the Texans. They became only the second team since 1933 to lose a game in which they picked off a minimum of five passes and led by at least 15. Previously, teams were 373-1-1 when leading by at least 15 and picking off five passes.
Houston fell to 2-3 this season without stellar second-year WR Nico Collins, compared to 4-1 with him. It was thought Collins would return from injured reserve on Sunday night, but he was inactive even though he was activated off injured reserve. It is fully expected that Collins will play in this one. The second half has been a problem all season for Houston. It has been outscored by 59 points after halftime, with that differential ranking 31st in the league.
In Sunday’s loss, C.J. Stroud threw for only 68 yards on 39 per cent completions with two interceptions in the third quarter, one occurring in the Detroit end zone when the Texans were up 23-13. They are 2-4 ATS in their past six away games.
Dallas Cowboys
With QB Dak Prescott expected to miss the rest of the season, career Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush got his seventh all-time start on Sunday, and it was brutal in a 34-6 home loss to Philadelphia, the fourth straight loss for Dallas (which is also now 0-4 at home). Rush was just 13-for-23 for 45 yards with two lost fumbles before being pulled for former 49ers No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance, who was 4-for-6 for 21 yards with a pick. Rush was only the third player in the last 20 years with more than 20 pass attempts and under 50 passing yards in a game.
Yet embattled coach Mike McCarthy will stick with Rush this week but perhaps on a very short leash as Lance at least has a higher ceiling. Star pass-rusher Micah Parsons returned to the lineup against the Eagles after missing four games with a high ankle sprain and had two sacks.
The Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to trail by at least 20 points in five straight home games including playoffs. And to think they had won 16 straight home games before this stretch. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its past eight overall.
HOU
DAL