The Kansas City Chiefs open defence of their Super Bowl title on Thursday in the annual NFL Kickoff Game. Patrick Mahomes & Co. host the Houston Texans, who are 9.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds with a total of 54.

Thursday Night Football Point Spread, Betting Analysis

While most NFL teams will not have fans in the stands for at least the month of September, the Chiefs are planning to allow around 16,000 at their games to start the season. That’s probably not enough to give Kansas City a true home-field advantage – Arrowhead Stadium is usually one of the toughest places to play in the NFL for opponents due to fan noise.

Reigning Super Bowl champions are 12-3 in the Kickoff Game. It’s Kansas City’s second time in it. In 2017, the Chiefs were heavy underdogs at defending champion New England but won 42-27. It’s the first time in this game for Houston.

These teams split two matchups last season, both in Kansas City. In Week 6, the Texans were 31-24 upset winners. Deshaun Watson threw for 280 yards and a score and rushed for two touchdowns. Carlos Hyde ran for 116 yards and a TD, but he’s now with Seattle. Mahomes threw for 273 yards and three TDs but wasn’t that accurate in completing 19 of 35.

In the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Houston jumped out to a shocking 24-0 second-quarter lead but then Kansas City scored 41 straight points and won 51-31. Mahomes threw for 321 yards and five TDs, with three of those to Travis Kelce. Watson threw for 388 and two scores.

The road team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings.

Houston Texans

The Texans begin life without Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who was stunningly traded to Arizona this past winter for running back David Johnson and draft picks. Johnson takes over as Houston’s featured back. He had a spectacular 2016 season that eventually earned Johnson a huge contract, but he hasn’t been close to that good again, partly due to injuries. Watson, who just got a monster extension over the weekend, also has two new starting wideouts in Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. JJ Watt is a favourite to win a record fourth NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award and is healthy, but Watt has been limited to eight games or fewer in three of the past four seasons due to injury. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 Thursday games.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will be missing five starters from the 22 that started Super Bowl LIV: Offensive lineman Stefan Wisniewski and Reggie Ragland left in free agency, and running back Damien Williams and offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (from Quebec) to opt outs. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland is suspended the first four games. The Chiefs may not miss Williams too much as they have an Offensive Rookie of the Year favourite in running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the 32^nd overall pick in this year’s draft. Mahomes, the MVP favourite and now the highest-paid player in NFL history, has an unbelievable group of weapons around him in Edwards-Helaire, receivers Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, and Kelce at tight end. Kansas City is 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven at home.

Who Will Win Texans vs. Chiefs?