Kansas City earned a first round bye in the playoffs after finishing the regular season with a 15-2 record, so it’s no surprise to see the Chiefs favoured in this game.

The Texans won the AFC South after finishing 10-7 and they looked impressive in a 32-12 beatdown against the Chargers in last week’s Wild Card matchup.

KC is an 8.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total listed at 41.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This should be an interesting matchup as the teams just met in Week 16, with the Chiefs winning 27-19 at home. Kanas City has dominated Houston in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era, winning four straight head-to-heads by an average of 12 points per game.

Oddsmakers aren’t firm believers the Chiefs will become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls as they sit at +350 on the NFL futures board, trailing Detroit at +280. There’s even less faith in the Texans, who have the longest Super Bowl odds of all remaining teams at +5000.

The historical data is screaming Chiefs in this game as they have won 11 straight home games and 11 straight games as the favourite. On the flip side, Houston has lost four of their last five games against the Chiefs and they haven’t won in Kansas City since 2019, which is a span of four games.

Both teams are almost exactly even against the spread this year. The edge might go to the Texans as the Chiefs have covered just three times in their last 11 games.

When it comes to totals betting, you can expect these teams to generate points. The Over has hit in six straight head-to-heads, with the teams combining to score a minimum of 46 points in every game during that stretch.

Houston Texans

Houston’s defence terrorized the Chargers last week, picking off and sacking Justin Herbert four times each. Offensively, C.J. Stroud was just OK, throwing for 282 yards, one TD and one interception. The biggest impacts came from Nico Collins and Joe Mixon. Each player found the end zone once, with Collins finishing with 122 receiving yards and Mixon adding 102 rushing yards.

The concern you have to have regarding the Texans this week is their atrocious offensive line, which is arguably the worst in the entire NFL. Something that hasn’t helped matters is starting guard Shaq Mason, who hasn’t played since injuring his knee against Kansas City in Week 16 and remains questionable this week. Another issue is Stroud’s propensity to hold onto the ball too long, something Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones should be able to exploit.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have two massive advantages in this game: rest and home field. Patrick Mahomes should be healthy after dealing with an ankle injury around Christmas and the receiving corps of Xavier Worhty, Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins is the healthiest it has been all season. And just as importantly, this Kansas City team just doesn’t lose at home. The Chiefs have won 11 straight home games and they haven’t lost a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium since the AFC Championship in the 2021-22 season.

If you want to nit-pick Kansas City in this game, you could point to the fact Mahomes had his least productive regular season since he became a full-time starter in 2018. It’s the first year Mahomes has failed to hit 4,000 passing yards and his 26 passing TDs tied a career-low. Still, he generally cooks against Houston. Mahomes is 3-1 in his career against the Texans, averaging 270 passing yards per game while throwing just one interception. I’m banking on ‘playoff Mahomes’ being unlocked on Saturday.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Texans vs. Chiefs?