Regardless of who plays, the 49ers can’t take the 4-11 Texans lightly — Houston just dropped 41 points on the Chargers last weekend to make the latter’s playoff odds harder. Getting complacent against Houston would do the same for the 49ers.

Kickoff at Levi’s Stadium goes at 4:05 p.m. EST. San Fran is currently a 12.5-point favourite at home, with the over-under at 44 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Houston’s offensive explosion in Week 16 moved them all the way out of last in scoring per game to second last. The Texans are still scoring just 16.5 points an outing, and a league-worst 12.9 a game on the road. As a result, Houston’s gone 5-2 to the under when on the road this season.

The 49ers are on an under trend themselves, which includes it hitting in five of their last seven games overall but also in four of their last six contests as a favourite. Factoring in a potential all-rookie quarterback matchup between Trey Lance and Davis Mills for Houston, and the under looks even sweeter heading into Sunday. But make sure to monitor Garoppolo’s status.

Happy New Year from your friends at Sports Interaction 🎉

Wanna win a framed/autographed Connor McDavid jersey? Of course you do. Details in this video.

Plus, 3 huge underdog picks for #Week17 of the NFL schedule #NFL pic.twitter.com/rWJZGMZJf2

— Sports Interaction (@SIASport) December 31, 2021

Houston Texans

Last Sunday’s win had a lot of firsts for the Texans in 2021. It was their first time reaching 40 points, and also their first game this season with a 100-yard rusher. Veteran tailback Rex Burkhead ran for 149 along with two scores in the win. Even with the 189 yards on the ground against the Chargers, Houston still ranks last in rushing yards per game with 84.8.

The Texans won the turnover battle 3-0 against Los Angeles, which was capped off by a 48-yard pick six by Tavierre Thomas. Houston’s done well there all season, now having a +3 turnover ratio on the season. Mills has only thrown two interceptions in his past six games too; the third-round pick might a legitimate option moving forward for Houston.

San Francisco 49ers

At 8-7 the 49ers are still holding a wild-card playoff spot, but last Thursday’s loss kept things tight. To make matters worse, San Fran blew a double-digit halftime lead and lost on a walk-off field goal at Tennessee. Now, they face more questions under centre.

Garoppolo’s thrown for just under 3,500 yards while completing 68 per cent of his passes in 14 games. Lance, the 2021 third-overall pick, has 354 yards on a 52 per cent completion rating in five appearances. Garoppolo’s got a 19:10 touchdown to interception ratio to go with these stats, while Lance’s is 3:1. No matter who plays, it’s a challenge for head coach Kyle Shanahan.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Texans vs. 49ers?