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Jeremy Perry
Saints vs. Titans Point Spread: NFL Predictions, Week 16 Odds
The New Orleans Saints earned an easy win on Monday Night Football, stomping the Indianapolis Colts 34-7. Now they’ll turn their attention to another AFC South team, the Tennessee Titans, who figure to offer more resistance.
The Titans had won six of seven to get back into the playoff race but in a showdown with the Houston Texans for first place in the division, the Titans fell flat. Can they get back on track on Sunday? If not, there’s a chance their playoff hopes will be dashed.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Saints have been a great bet on the road as they’ve not only won five of their six away games, they’ve covered five of the games too. They’re on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football but they’re 8-2 ATS in this spot when they’ve had six days or less to rest. They’re also 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games where the spread is between +3 to -3.
The Titans are 7-6-1 ATS on the season. This will be their fifth time as the dog this year and they’re 3-2 ATS in that spot. They’ve lost and failed to cover four straight home games where the total is 49.5 or higher.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints cruised to a 34-7 win over the Colts on Monday Night Football where they hardly broke a sweat. Quarterback Drew Brees was 29-of-30 on the night with 307 yards and four touchdowns. The defense bounced back, giving up just seven points in garbage time. That was important as they allowed 48 to the San Francisco 49ers the week before.
Road games have traditionally been a challenge for the Saints under Brees but that hasn’t been the case this year. They’re 5-1 in away games with the only loss being the game in Los Angeles where Brees was lost to injury. They’ve won all of their road games by at least six, so it’s not as if they’ve really been a sweat.
The key here is to cut-off Derrick Henry and prevent him from getting going. In the Titans wins, Henry is averaging 118.5 rushing yards per game with 1.13 touchdowns per contest and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average. He’s at 63.5 yards, 0.67 touchdowns and a 3.8 average in the losses. The Saints enter with the league’s fourth-best run defense, so they should feel good about themselves in this spot.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans hit a wall in Week 15. After winning six of seven to put themselves in playoff position, they completely flopped at home to the Texans. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson gifted Tennessee with a pair of picks from the one-yard line and it still didn’t matter.
The key to the Titans is playing from ahead. Last week, they trailed almost all game and that threw them off their game plan. Although Ryan Tannehill has played admirably as the starter, this is not a passing game that can dig this team out of deep holes. They have to be able to run the ball, play defense and control the clock.
While the Saints are fourth in run defense at just 90.8 rushing yards per game, they’re actually 19th in yards-per-carry at 4.2. The Titans simply have to get a big game out of Henry and the running game or they’re not going to beat the 11-3 Saints on Sunday.
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