The Saints improved to 3-1 straight up in their past four with last week’s 18-10 win over Carolina, but need a victory over the Falcons combined with a loss by San Francisco in its clash with Los Angeles to capture the final NFC wild card. Bounced from playoff contention by last weekend’s 29-15 loss in Buffalo, the Falcons aim to record consecutive wins on home turf for just the second time since the start of the 2020 NFL season.

New Orleans is a 4-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 40.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Saints have enjoyed the backing of just 43 per cent of sports bettors since opening as 4-point favourites. New Orleans briefly improved to 4.5-point chalk before falling back to -4, but has emerged as a -114 bet to cover. The total has held steady since opening at 40, with 55 per cent of the betting action backing the UNDER.

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium marks the second meeting of the season between these NFC South rivals. The Saints dropped 27-25 to the visiting Falcons in Week 9, but have won and covered in six of eight meetings including their past three visits to Atlanta.

Clashes between these teams have otherwise tended to be low-scoring, with the total finishing under 40 on five occasions during a 7-2 run for the UNDER. Road teams have fared well in head-to-head action, winning outright in five of seven, with the Falcons failing to cover as home underdogs on two occasions over that stretch. Atlanta has gone just 6-9-1 against the spread including a 1-6 mark on home turf. The Saints have covered in three of four overall, and have also won and covered in five of seven road dates this season.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been plagued by injuries throughout the season, and have been particularly hard hit on offence. Among the key offensive personnel to miss time are quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, and rushers Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. However, the defence has stepped up, allowing just one total touchdown pass and one scoring pass during the team’s 3-1 run.

Cameron Jordan has elevated his game since returning from a one-game COVID-related absence. The veteran defensive end turned in a monster performance last weekend. Jordan recorded eight tackles and 3.5 sacks, and has now tallied 7.5 total sacks over his past three outings.

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan’s recent struggles continued in last weekend’s loss. The Falcons pivot failed to find the end zone while connecting on just 13 of 23 pass attempts for 197 yards. Ryan has now tossed for just five scores against five picks over the past eight games. But he has received little help from a porous offensive line that allowed him to get sacked five times last week, and 21 times over his past seven outings.

The Atlanta rush defence has also been subpar, surrendering 154 yards per game and nine total scoring runs over their past four. That is good news for Saints pivot Hill, who has scrambled for 252 total rushing yards and two scoring runs over the past four games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Saints vs. Falcons?