The Saints improved to 3-1 straight up in their past four with last week’s 18-10 win over Carolina, but need a victory over the Falcons combined with a loss by San Francisco in its clash with Los Angeles to capture the final NFC wild card. Bounced from playoff contention by last weekend’s 29-15 loss in Buffalo, the Falcons aim to record consecutive wins on home turf for just the second time since the start of the 2020 NFL season.

New Orleans is a 4-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 40.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Saints have enjoyed the backing of just 43 per cent of sports bettors since opening as 4-point favourites. New Orleans briefly improved to 4.5-point chalk before falling back to -4, but has emerged as a -114 bet to cover. The total has held steady since opening at 40, with 55 per cent of the betting action backing the UNDER.

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium marks the second meeting of the season between these NFC South rivals. The Saints dropped 27-25 to the visiting Falcons in Week 9, but have won and covered in six of eight meetings including their past three visits to Atlanta.

Clashes between these teams have otherwise tended to be low-scoring, with the total finishing under 40 on five occasions during a 7-2 run for the UNDER. Road teams have fared well in head-to-head action, winning outright in five of seven, with the Falcons failing to cover as home underdogs on two occasions over that stretch. Atlanta has gone just 6-9-1 against the spread including a 1-6 mark on home turf. The Saints have covered in three of four overall, and have also won and covered in five of seven road dates this season.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been plagued by injuries throughout the season, and have been particularly hard hit on offence. Among the key offensive personnel to miss time are quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, and rushers Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. However, the defence has stepped up, allowing just one total touchdown pass and one scoring pass during the team’s 3-1 run.

Cameron Jordan has elevated his game since returning from a one-game COVID-related absence. The veteran defensive end turned in a monster performance last weekend. Jordan recorded eight tackles and 3.5 sacks, and has now tallied 7.5 total sacks over his past three outings.

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan’s recent struggles continued in last weekend’s loss. The Falcons pivot failed to find the end zone while connecting on just 13 of 23 pass attempts for 197 yards. Ryan has now tossed for just five scores against five picks over the past eight games. But he has received little help from a porous offensive line that allowed him to get sacked five times last week, and 21 times over his past seven outings.

The Atlanta rush defence has also been subpar, surrendering 154 yards per game and nine total scoring runs over their past four. That is good news for Saints pivot Hill, who has scrambled for 252 total rushing yards and two scoring runs over the past four games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Saints vs. Falcons?

• Regular Season

Saints Team Leaders

NO

Touchdowns	Alvin Kamara 9
Rushing	Alvin Kamara 898
Passing	Jameis Winston 1170
Receiving	Alvin Kamara 47
Sacks	Cameron Jordan 12.5
Interceptions	Paulson Adebo 3

ATL

Touchdowns	Cordarrelle Patterson 11
Rushing	Cordarrelle Patterson 618
Passing	Matt Ryan 3968
Receiving	Kyle Pitts 68
Sacks	Dante Fowler Jr. 4.5
Interceptions	A.J. Terrell 3

• Regular Season

Falcons Team Leaders

NO

Touchdowns	Alvin Kamara 9
Rushing	Alvin Kamara 898
Passing	Jameis Winston 1170
Receiving	Alvin Kamara 47
Sacks	Cameron Jordan 12.5
Interceptions	Paulson Adebo 3

ATL

Touchdowns	Cordarrelle Patterson 11
Rushing	Cordarrelle Patterson 618
Passing	Matt Ryan 3968
Receiving	Kyle Pitts 68
Sacks	Dante Fowler Jr. 4.5
Interceptions	A.J. Terrell 3

Weather

temp	63
condition	dome

Injuries

New Orleans

Caleb Benenoch (T)

Out indefinitely Illness - 08 / 01 / 22

Marcus Davenport (DE)

Ques Sun Ankle - 05 / 01 / 22

Taysom Hill (QB)

day-to-day Finger - 05 / 01 / 22

Ty Montgomery (RB)

Ques Sun Back - 05 / 01 / 22

Bradley Roby (DB)

Out Sun Shoulder - 05 / 01 / 22

Albert Huggins (DT)

Out indefinitely Illness - 04 / 01 / 22

P.J. Williams (DB)

Out Sun Ankle - 03 / 01 / 22

Erik McCoy (C)

Ques Sun Illness - 01 / 01 / 22

Marcus Williams (S)

Ques Sun Illness - 01 / 01 / 22

Taysom Hill (QB)

Prob Sun Finger - 30 / 12 / 21

Atlanta

Frank Darby (WR)

Ques Sun Shoulder - 05 / 01 / 22

Qadree Ollison (RB)

Ques Sun Quadricep - 02 / 01 / 22

Jason Spriggs (T)

Out indefinitely Illness - 30 / 12 / 21

Jonathan Bullard (DL)

Out indefinitely Illness - 29 / 12 / 21

Jaylinn Hawkins (S)

Out indefinitely Illness - 29 / 12 / 21

Hayden Hurst (TE)

Out indefinitely Illness - 29 / 12 / 21

Fabian Moreau (CB)

Prob Sun Ribs - 29 / 12 / 21

Richie Grant (S)

Out indefinitely Illness - 28 / 12 / 21

Feleipe Franks (QB)

Out indefinitely Illness - 28 / 12 / 21

Brandon Copeland (LB)

Out indefinitely Illness - 27 / 12 / 21

Injuries

New Orleans

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Caleb Benenoch (T)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 08 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Benenoch has been added to the IR/COVID-19 list, and it has yet to be decided when he will return to action.
Marcus Davenport (DE)	Ques Sun	Ankle - 05 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Davenport is battling an ankle injury, and it has yet to be announced if he will suit up for Sunday's game versus the Falcons.
Taysom Hill (QB)	day-to-day	Finger - 05 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Hill was removed from Sunday's tilt with a lisfranc foot injury, and he will not return.
Ty Montgomery (RB)	Ques Sun	Back - 05 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Montgomery has a back injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available for Sunday's matchup with the Falcons.
Bradley Roby (DB)	Out Sun	Shoulder - 05 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Roby has a shoulder injury, and he will not take the field against the Falcons on Sunday.
Albert Huggins (DT)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 04 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Huggins has been posted to the IR/COVID-19 list, and it has yet to be established when he can return.
P.J. Williams (DB)	Out Sun	Ankle - 03 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Williams was forced form the last contest with an ankle injury, and he will not suit up against the Falcons on Sunday.
Erik McCoy (C)	Ques Sun	Illness - 01 / 01 / 22	1-1	0-2	+ -
McCoy was absent from the last game with an illness, and it is unclear if he will face the Falcons on Sunday.
Marcus Williams (S)	Ques Sun	Illness - 01 / 01 / 22	1-1	0-2	+ -
Williams sat out the last game due to an illness, and it is undecided if he will take the field on Sunday versus the Falcons.
Taysom Hill (QB)	Prob Sun	Finger - 30 / 12 / 21	1-1	0-2	+ -
Hill is expected to be active against the Panthers on Sunday despite a right finger injury.

Atlanta

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Frank Darby (WR)	Ques Sun	Shoulder - 05 / 01 / 22	0-0	0-1	+ -
Darby has a shoulder injury, and it is uncertain if he will be active against the Saints on Sunday.
Qadree Ollison (RB)	Ques Sun	Quadricep - 02 / 01 / 22	0-1	0-2	+ -
Ollison exited the last game with a quadriceps injury, and it is undecided if he will be active on Sunday versus the Saints.
Jason Spriggs (T)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 30 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Spriggs will miss an undetermined length of time after winding up on the COVID-19 list.
Jonathan Bullard (DL)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 29 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Bullard will miss an undetermined length of time after winding up on the COVID-19 list.
Jaylinn Hawkins (S)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 29 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Hawkins has been added to the IR/COVID-19 list, and it has yet to be decided when he will return to action.
Hayden Hurst (TE)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 29 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Hurst has been entered to the IR/COVID-19 list, leaving his availability moving forward unclear.
Fabian Moreau (CB)	Prob Sun	Ribs - 29 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Moreau sat out the last game due to a rib injury, but it is likely that he will partake in Sunday's battle with the Saints.
Richie Grant (S)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 28 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Grant will miss an undetermined length of time after winding up on the COVID-19 list.
Feleipe Franks (QB)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 28 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Franks has been shifted to the IR/COVID-19 list, and it is unknown when he will return.
Brandon Copeland (LB)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 27 / 12 / 21	0-1	0-2	+ -
Copeland will miss an undetermined length of time after winding up on the COVID-19 list.