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Edgar Chaput
Saints vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction
For all the inconsistencies the NFC South exemplified this season (and last), the reality is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are riding a four-game winning streak and could plant their flag atop it should they defeat New Orleans at home in Week 17. The Bucs are coming off a stomping of the Jaguars, 30-12, whereas the Saints were handed a bad 30-22 loss by the Rams.
The NFL odds envision a close contest, with Tampa Bay perched as a slight -3 favourite.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay has an opportunity to deliver the kiss of death to the Saints this Sunday. They’re 8-7 to the Saints’ 7-8 record and have already vanquished them once this year, 26-9. A win here would give New Orleans no hope of winning the division and barely any to make the playoffs. We’ll also note that Tampa is riding a three-game winning streak against New Orleans, although they were quarterbacked by a different gunslinger last year as most know.
What to make of the 2023 New Orleans Saints? The Derek Carr acquisition has not paid dividends, to say the least. The overall numbers are fine, but touchdowns and wins are what matter. They’re only 14th in yards per game (334.8), 12th in passing yards per match (236.1), and 13th in points (22.1). Against the spread, the club is a terrible 4-10-1, although two of those covers were recent. The over is only 5-10.
Ironically, Tampa Bay is ranked worse in most offensive categories, such as total yards (23rd with 316.4), passing yards (17th with 227.0), and points (17th with 21.7). It’s important to note that the team was 4-7 just one month ago and not playing very good football. The past four weeks have seen a surge in offensive production and much better play overall. Versus the spread they are the polar opposite of the Saints, sitting at 10-5 although the over is only 6-9.
New Orleans Saints
For those who hadn’t paid much attention to the Saints, Week 16 provided a glimpse into the 2023 iteration. A much-hyped game on the road against the Los Angeles Rams ended in a 30-22 loss, a final score that in some ways flattered the losers.
The truth is New Orleans had been riding a two-game winning streak by marching over the Panthers and Giants, two disastrous operations. Their last win before that had come against the Bears, another unimpressive ensemble. Los Angeles was a litmus test of sorts, and the Saints failed before everybody’s eyes on primetime. Yes, they fought in the fourth quarter, scoring 15 points on a couple of nice drives (the Rams have been shaky with fourth quarter leads), but the first three periods were unmitigated disasters. It was a 27-7 game.
Carr was 27-for-40, 319 yards and three TDS, but a lot of that was late. WR Chris Olave, despite not scoring, caught nine passes for 123 yards. The early deficit meant that running ball went out the window, but when they tried it was pretty terrible (Alvin Kamara averaged 2.1 yards on nine touches).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In stark contrast to this week’s opponents, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked amazing at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. One can chalk some of that up to the concussion conversation surrounding Jags QB Trevor Lawrence heading into the contest, but 30-12 is a rather decisive final score.
Once again Baker Mayfield looked mighty fine under centre. He went 26-for-35, 283, and two TDs, each going to the ever-impressive Mike Evans. The Bucs so thoroughly outclassed the Jaguars that it was a 20-0 game at halftime. The most remarkable thing about this game was that Jacksonville earned more first downs than Tampa Bay (23 to 22). That said, the hosts’ secondary did a number on Lawrence, picking him off twice. WR Chris Godwin had a solid game as well, hauling in six passes for 78 yards.