Raiders vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Nov 13, 2024

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams

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The 3-6 Miami Dolphins will look to improve their slim playoff hopes when they host the 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

Las Vegas
2-10
AT
November 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
5-7
Pointspread +7.5 -105
Moneyline +310
Over / Under o +43.5
Matchup Odds
Pointspread -7.5 -115
Moneyline -400
Over / Under u +43.5
Matchup Odds

Miami may have saved their season with a 23-15 win over the Rams on Monday Night Football. It’s a different story for the lowly Raiders, who entered last week’s bye with five straight losses, including a 41-24 blowout against Cincinnati in Week 9.

The Dolphins opened as seven-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 45.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

A large majority of early betting action is favouring Miami, leading the spread to grow to Dolphins -8 as of Wednesday afternoon. The total, however, has dropped to 44. Those numbers make sense given the teams met in November last year, with Miami winning 20-13, while Las Vegas covered as massive 14-point underdogs.

Covering the spread isn’t something either team has excelled at this season. The Raiders are 4-5 against the spread and the Dolphins have covered in just three of nine games. The concern for Miami backers is that this is the biggest spread for the Dolphins this season and they’ve already failed to cover in four of five games as the favourite.

Last year’s meeting broke a string of eight straight Overs hit between Las Vegas and Miami. That compliments a trend that has seen the Over hit in four of the Raiders last five games. Meanwhile the total has gone Under in eight of the Dolphins’ last 11 games, but keep in mind Tua Tagovailoa missed a big chunk of those contests. Miami’s offence is much better and much more efficient with Tagovailoa under centre.

Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas has struggled to spark their offence since quarterback Aidan O’Connell fractured his thumb in Week 7. The earliest O’Connell can return is Week 13, so the Raiders will continue to rely on Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder. Minshew was 10-of-17 for 124 passing yards before being benched in the third quarter last week. Ridder was 11-of-16 for 74 yards and one TD. Jakobi Meyers was the lone bright spot on offence, finishing with a game-high 105 receiving yards.

Las Vegas almost looked cursed last week as offensive tackles Kolton Miller and Andrus Peat, along with cornerback Nate Hobbs, guard Cody Whitehair and tight end Harrison Bryant all suffered ankle injuries against the Bengals. It’s still too early to tell how significant the injuries are, so keep an eye on the injury report as the team practices this week.

Miami Dolphins

There’s no doubt about it, Miami is obviously a much more dangerous team with Tagovailoa under centre. Tagovailoa completed 20 of 28 passes for 207 yards, one TD and one interception against the Rams, leading the Dolphins to their first win in over a month. Tyreek Hill, who was questionable to play with a wrist injury, made just three catches for 16 yards, but that included a key TD reception in the third quarter. It was Hill’s first TD catch since the season-opener, ending the longest drought of his career.

Miami’s defence stepped up against the Rams, forcing two turnovers while not conceding a single touchdown. The Dolphins were a top-five unit statistically in Week 10, their fourth appearance inside the top-10 in the last six weeks. They’ve been particularly effective on third-down, ranking third in the league, although they are 30th in sacks (14).

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Raiders vs. Dolphins?

NFL Predictions
SportsInteraction
  • LV
  • +7.5 -7.5
  • MIA
Matchup NFL Odds