Once upon a time the then-Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers contended for a Super Bowl. It was Super Bowl XXXV, which the Bucs easily won, 48-21. That was then. This is now. The Raiders, now based in Las Vegas, are 2-10 and crawling to the regular season finish line. Tampa Bay is riding a two-game winning streak, having last beaten the Carolina Panthers in OT, 26-23.

Our NFL odds have the Buccaneers as relatively comfortable -6.5 favourites.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Fun fact: the road teams have won the past four meetings between these infrequent foes. The games go back to 2008. The last time a home team won was, incidentally, a Super Bowl rematch in the 2004 campaign, which the Raiders took, albeit in their former home in northern California.

Las Vegas may be a glitzy city with a lot to show for itself, but Raiders are not one of those jewels. Their disappointing 2-10 straight up record has only translated to a 5-7 tally against the spread. Vegas struggles to put points on the board, scoring only 18.6 per match (27^th in the NFL), nor are they efficient at stopping the opposition, coughing up 27.8 a game (28^th league-wide). As for injuries, WR DR Turner (IR), RB Zamir White (questionable), and RB Alexander Mattison (questionable) are banged up.

Tampa Bay is living a maddeningly topsy-turvy campaign, enough to give Bucs fans of certain ages heart attacks. That said, they’re sticking around in the race for the NFC South thanks to some bold, scrappy play. The team isn’t too shabby ATS either, having earned a 7-5 record so far. Tampa is also 3-3 ATS when playing at home this season. Of note, even though there’s time for them to heal, QB Baker Mayfield (leg, questionable) and RB Bucky Irving (hip. questionable) are nursing wounds.

Las Vegas Raiders

What were Raiders fans expecting to see on Black Friday when the Silver and Black visited the uniquely talented Kansas City Chiefs? The performance was admirable, to be fair, but costly errors, some quite bone-headed, sunk the Raiders, as has often been the case in 2024.

At this stage, it doesn’t matter if a team outgains the Chiefs (which the Raiders did, 434 yards to 329) or amasses more first downs (which the Raiders also did, 20 to 18). Kansas City finds ways to win, and Las Vegas finds ways to lose.

A brave display by the defence – Robert Spillane had nine tackles, and K’Lavon  Moehrig registered 1.5 sacks – wasn’t enough. A truly superb day for TE Brock Bowers (10 catches, 140 yards, one TD) wasn’t enough. Daniel Carlson was 1-for-4 on his field goal attempts, and a calamitous fumble late in the game when there was miscommunication between QB Aidan O’Connell and his centre sealed in a 19-17 defeat.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Never count these Buccaneers out. Time will tell how far their journey in 2024 takes them, but this group is tough.

Consider the 26-23 overtime win in Carolina against the Panthers in Week 13. Despite throwing a pair of interceptions, Mayfield still connected on 21 of his 33 throws for 235 yards and a sensational TD to Mike Evans to open the scoring in the first quarter. The real talking point, injury aside, was RB Bucky Irving, who tallied 152 yards on 25 touches and a score and added another 33 yards on a trio of catches.

Tampa Bay kicked a field goal with 3:05 left in the game to claim a 20-16 lead. The Panthers romped down the field for a TD to make it 23-20 for them. With 30 seconds remaining, the Bucs managed to tie the game on another field goal and win it in overtime 26-23 despite actually missing another attempt earlier in the extra session. Wild stuff.

Who Will Win Raiders vs. Buccaneers?